Daewon Yang, Masahiro Hashizume, Aurelio Tobías, Yasushi Honda, Dominic Roye, Jaemin Oh, Tran Ngoc Dang, Yoonhee Kim, Rosana Abrutzky, Yuming Guo, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Veronika Huber, Alexandra Schneider, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Alireza Entezari, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de'Donato, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado Diaz, César De la Cruz Valencia, Ala Overcenco, Danny Houthuijs, Caroline Ameling, Shilpa Rao, Baltazar Nunes, Joana Madureira, Iulian Horia Holo-Bâc, Noah Scovronick, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Martina S Ragettli, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Shih Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Francesco Sera, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini, Yeonseung Chung
{"title":"气候变化下最低死亡温度的时间变化：一项跨越 1986-2015 年的多国多社区观察研究。","authors":"Daewon Yang, Masahiro Hashizume, Aurelio Tobías, Yasushi Honda, Dominic Roye, Jaemin Oh, Tran Ngoc Dang, Yoonhee Kim, Rosana Abrutzky, Yuming Guo, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Veronika Huber, Alexandra Schneider, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Alireza Entezari, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de'Donato, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado Diaz, César De la Cruz Valencia, Ala Overcenco, Danny Houthuijs, Caroline Ameling, Shilpa Rao, Baltazar Nunes, Joana Madureira, Iulian Horia Holo-Bâc, Noah Scovronick, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Martina S Ragettli, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Shih Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Francesco Sera, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini, Yeonseung Chung","doi":"10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986-2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (<i>P</i> < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, <i>P</i> = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, <i>P</i> = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = -0.46, <i>P</i> = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = -3.45, <i>P</i> = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = -2.86, <i>P</i> = 0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.</p>","PeriodicalId":11713,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Epidemiology","volume":"8 5","pages":"e334"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11567688/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015.\",\"authors\":\"Daewon Yang, Masahiro Hashizume, Aurelio Tobías, Yasushi Honda, Dominic Roye, Jaemin Oh, Tran Ngoc Dang, Yoonhee Kim, Rosana Abrutzky, Yuming Guo, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Veronika Huber, Alexandra Schneider, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Alireza Entezari, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de'Donato, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado Diaz, César De la Cruz Valencia, Ala Overcenco, Danny Houthuijs, Caroline Ameling, Shilpa Rao, Baltazar Nunes, Joana Madureira, Iulian Horia Holo-Bâc, Noah Scovronick, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Martina S Ragettli, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Shih Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Francesco Sera, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini, Yeonseung Chung\",\"doi\":\"10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986-2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (<i>P</i> < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, <i>P</i> = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, <i>P</i> = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = -0.46, <i>P</i> = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = -3.45, <i>P</i> = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = -2.86, <i>P</i> = 0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11713,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental Epidemiology\",\"volume\":\"8 5\",\"pages\":\"e334\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11567688/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental Epidemiology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/10/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/10/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015.
Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries.
Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986-2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country.
Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = -0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = -3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = -2.86, P = 0.05).
Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.
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