Prediction of Dominant Roof Water Inrush Windows and Analysis of Control Target Area based on Set Pair Variable Weight - Forward Correlation Cloud Model

Coal mining disturbs the roof overlying rock, forming a channel for roof water inrush. This process destroys the primary seepage state of the deep aquifer, resulting in waste and pollution of deep water resources and posing a significant threat to coal mining. Therefore, through field measurement and numerical simulation, this paper comprehensively analyzes the development law of coal seam mining overlying rock fracture, and determines the influence range of coal seam roof water inrush. Then, a set pair variable weight - forward associated cloud prediction model is constructed to predict the dominant water inrush window and seepage channel of coal seam roof, and the key protection area of coal mining roof water inrush is delineated. The results show that with the continuous advance of the coal face, the stress shifts to both sides of the face, forming a stress concentration area, and the vertical fissure develops intensively, which becomes the main channel of water inrush. After the development is stable, it is comprehensively determined that the fissure production ratio of the coal seam is 11.7, and the fracture zone extends to the aquifer area are the water inrush source. Then, through the prediction model, the edge of the danger area near the high-risk area is defined as the advantage window of coal seam roof water inrush, and the result is consistent with the actual water inrush event. Therefore, the target of water inrush in roof is determined, and the effective measures of water reduction mining are put forward. This study is of great significance for protecting deep water resources, ensuring mine safety, and creating efficiency and increasing income.