Exploring the Path of Balanced Development: The Decoupling Evaluation of Agricultural Production Efficiency and Land Carrying Capacity

High-quality development in agriculture is crucial for maintaining the harmonious balance between human society and the natural environment, and promoting this development model is one of the key measures to alleviate land degradation issues. This study, grounded in the PRED theory (Population, Resources, Environment, and Development theory) framework, establishes an evaluation system for high-quality agricultural development by selecting 128 cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt as its samples. It quantifies land carrying capacity, utilizes the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model to assess agricultural production efficiency, and applies the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the interplay between these two factors. The results reveal that the land resource carrying index has risen from 1.245 to 1.70, indicating an escalating tension between population and food resources. Furthermore, agricultural production efficiency has seen a 16.56% increase, reflecting positive advancements in agricultural production across the region. Spatial distribution analysis shows that the standard deviation ellipse is concentrated in the mid and lower reaches, centered in Changde, Hunan, and expanding westward, with a broader coverage area and perimeter. Additionally, the decoupling relationship between land carrying capacity and agricultural production efficiency primarily manifests in three forms: strong negative decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling. This research offers significant insights for effectively mitigating the strain between population growth and resource-environmental carrying capacity.