Does Policy Uncertainty Boost Vaccine Hesitancy? Political Controversy, the FDA and COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in Fall 2020.

Context: Vaccine hesitancy is associated with political and institutional distrust, but there is little research on how people's trust responds to political events. We revisit the fall of 2020 when evaluation of new COVID-19 vaccines collided with an impending national election. Drawing on a political Bayesian perspective, we assess abrupt changes in attention to political events and test hypotheses on subpopulation response: (1) partisan, (2) educational, and (3) ethnic and racial.

Methods: Analysis of daily changes in news reporting and social media use in 2020, combined with detailed analysis of two-large scale surveys fielded at the time, focusing on questions of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and safety concerns about COVID-19 vaccines.

Findings: Vaccine hesitancy in the US spiked from late August to early October 2020. We identify several plausible triggers for this spike, all pertaining to the FDA and electoral politics. Heightened vaccine hesitancy occurred among Democrats, Asian and Black citizens, as well as college-educated respondents. Turbulence mainly affected those who were initially most trusting in government and vaccines. Asian-American vaccine confidence recovered; that of Black Americans did not.

Conclusions: Electoral politics may destabilize citizen assumptions about vaccine authorization and boost uncertainty, thereby undermining public willingness to take approved vaccines.