Maternal Fasting Plasma Glucose, Age and Body Mass Index as Prediction of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Iran.

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common complication of pregnancy that can lead to adverse outcomes. In this retrospective cohort study, maternal fasting blood sugar (FBS) in the second trimester of pregnancy, body mass index (BMI), and age were assessed as potential screening indicators of later GDM.

Methods: The study population included information on 4007 Iranian pregnant women documented by the Integrated Health Record System (SIB) record system (2019-2020).

Results: In the adjusted analysis, FBS maintained a significant relationship with GDM (P ≤0.001). In the simple ROC analysis, the AUC (SE) of FBS for the prediction of GDM was 0.905(0.09), and considering the cut-off point as 85.95, sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) were equal to 0.81 and 0.71, respectively, but by stillbirth, abortion, prematurity, neonatal weight, height, and head circumference not obtained acceptable AUC (≥.60) for detection of FBS cut-off point. The cut-off point of FBS in the presence of maternal age (AUC>0.6) and BMI (AUC>0.6) by GDM was 83.75(Se= 86.4%, Sp= 80.0%).

Conclusion: Based on the evidence presented, maternal weight and BMI are important in predicting hyperglycemia leading to GDM. It is necessary to conduct more precise national studies to standardize the FBS cut-off point by controlling age and BMI variables.