Will climate change constrain the altitudinal range of threatened species? Experimental evidence from a biodiversity hotspot.

A fundamental goal in ecology and evolution is to explain the factors that shape species' abundance and range limits. Evaluating the performance of early life-stages across an altitudinal gradient can be valuable for understanding what factors shape range limits and for predicting how plant species may respond to climate change. To experimentally evaluate the presence of local adaptation in a threatened palm (Euterpe edulis) at early life-stages, we reciprocally sowed seeds at two contrasting elevations. In addition, to evaluate the effect of seed predation on E. edulis seed germination and seedling establishment, seed addition experiments were conducted at three different elevations. Our results showed no evidence of local adaptation in the early life-stages for the two E. edulis populations. We observed lower germination and seedling performance of both E. edulis populations at the low-elevation site. The exclusion of seed predation increased seedling establishment across all elevations. Seed predation and dry soil conditions were the main factors that constrained seedling establishment at the upper altitudinal limit and at the lower elevation, respectively. Climate change in the study area will result in warmer and drier environmental conditions. The lack of local adaptation and the lower performance of both E. edulis populations in warm and dry conditions, combined with a higher seed predation at the upper altitudinal limit, might cause an altitudinal range contraction, increasing the vulnerability of this threatened species to climate change.