Risk factors for postoperative recurrence in eosinophilic chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps: development of a prediction model.

Objective: To identify risk factors for postoperative recurrence in patients with eosinophilic chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (ECRSwNP) and develop a nomogram prediction model for identifying patients at high risk of recurrence.

Methods: A cohort study involving 200 ECRSwNP patients analyzed clinical data for recurrence predictors using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram model was developed and validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Mean absolute error (MAE) calculations evaluated the model's predictive accuracy.

Results: At six-month follow-up, 39 patients (19.5%) experienced recurrence. Factors such as preoperative tissue eosinophil percentage, eosinophil cationic protein (ECP), serum-specific immunoglobulin E (IgE), interleukin-5 (IL-5), and postoperative nasal environment were identified as risk factors for recurrence. The nomogram incorporating these factors demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.989, MAE = 0.026).

Conclusion: This study underscores the significance of individualized risk assessment in managing ECRSwNP recurrence. The developed nomogram provides a robust tool for clinical prognostication, aiding personalized treatment strategies and improving patient outcomes.