根据温度与大气二氧化碳的线性关系估计人类引起的变暖

IF 15.7 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI:10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5

Andrew Jarvis, Piers M. Forster

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引用次数: 0

摘要

评估《巴黎协定》中人类引起的气候变暖目标的遵守情况需要透明、可靠和及时的衡量标准。大气中二氧化碳的增加与温度的增加之间的线性关系提供了一个似乎能满足这些标准的框架，与其他方法相比，它产生的人类引起的变暖估计值至少要确定 30%。在此，我们估计 2023 年人类导致全球气温相对于 1700 年前的基线上升了 1.49 ± 0.11 °C。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship

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Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship

Assessing compliance with the human-induced warming goal in the Paris Agreement requires transparent, robust and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO₂ and temperature offers a framework that appears to satisfy these criteria, producing human-induced warming estimates that are at least 30% more certain than alternative methods. Here, for 2023, we estimate humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to a pre-1700 baseline.

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来源期刊

Nature Geoscience 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

26.70

自引率

1.60%

发文量

187

审稿时长

3.3 months

期刊介绍： Nature Geoscience is a monthly interdisciplinary journal that gathers top-tier research spanning Earth Sciences and related fields. The journal covers all geoscience disciplines, including fieldwork, modeling, and theoretical studies. Topics include atmospheric science, biogeochemistry, climate science, geobiology, geochemistry, geoinformatics, remote sensing, geology, geomagnetism, paleomagnetism, geomorphology, geophysics, glaciology, hydrology, limnology, mineralogy, oceanography, paleontology, paleoclimatology, paleoceanography, petrology, planetary science, seismology, space physics, tectonics, and volcanology. Nature Geoscience upholds its commitment to publishing significant, high-quality Earth Sciences research through fair, rapid, and rigorous peer review, overseen by a team of full-time professional editors.