预测碳排放交易对塞尔维亚国内生产总值的中短期影响

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2024.101855

B. Pavlović , N. Trtica

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引用次数: 0

摘要

排放交易体系（ETS）是一项旨在减少温室气体排放的经济和气候政策工具，本文提出了一种从支出方面评估排放交易体系对国内生产总值中短期影响的方法。分析的重点是塞尔维亚的电力部门，该部门严重依赖国有企业主导的褐煤生产。预测结果表明，在短期内，与官方预测相比，引入排放交易计划可能会导致国内生产总值增长放缓。然而，到 2030 年，增长速度会加快，最终与投资较高的方案中的预计增长趋同，甚至超过。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Projecting short to medium-term effects of carbon emissions trading on Serbia's GDP

This paper presents an approach to assess the short to medium-term effects of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), an economic and climate policy instrument aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on GDP from the expenditure side. The analysis focuses on Serbia's electricity sector, which relies heavily on lignite-based production dominated by state-owned enterprises. The obtained projections suggest that in the short term, the introduction of an ETS may lead to slower GDP growth compared to official forecasts. However, by 2030, accelerated growth is observed, eventually converging with and even surpassing the projected growth in scenarios characterized by higher investments.

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.