20 世纪 90 年代至 2010 年代中国夜间温度导致的非致命性伤害负担

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00825-9

Jianxiong Hu, Yuliang Er, Xiao Deng, Tao Liu, Fangfang Zeng, Pengpeng Ye, Guanhao He, Qijiong Zhu, Ye Jin, Sujuan Chen, Cuirong Ji, Ziqiang Lin, Fengrui Jing, Leilei Duan, Yuan Wang, Wenjun Ma

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引用次数: 0

摘要

与夜间温度相关的伤害风险和负担尚不明确。我们利用 2006-2021 年间全国 243 家监测医院的 11,512,467 例非致命性损伤病例，通过时间分层病例交叉研究，估计了白天或夜间温度与损伤之间的关系，并比较了 1990 年代至 2010 年代的损伤负担。我们发现，夜间气温每升高 1°C 的超额风险（ER = 1.21%，95%CI:1.03%,1.39%）高于白天（ER = 0.86%，95%CI:0.72%,1.00%）。与 20 世纪 80 年代相比，20 世纪 90 年代至 2010 年代白天和夜间气温变化的可归因分数分别为 0.59% (95%eCI:0.54%,0.67%) 和 0.73% (95%eCI:0.69%,0.77%)。从空间上看，夜间温度的高AFs比白天温度的高AFs分布更广。在中国，夜间气温导致的非致命性伤害风险高于白天气温，夜间气温升高造成的伤害负担高于白天气温。我们的研究结果表明，在气候变化的背景下，夜间高温是一个重要的伤害风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Non-fatal Injury burden attributed to night-time temperature during 1990s-2010s in China

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Non-fatal Injury burden attributed to night-time temperature during 1990s-2010s in China

The night-time temperature-related injury risks and burdens were unclear. Using 11,512,467 non-fatal injury cases in 243 surveillance hospitals across China from 2006-2021, we estimated the associations between daytime or night-time temperature and injury by a time-stratified case-crossover study, and compared their injury burden during 1990s–2010s. We found the excess risk (ER) for per 1°C rise in night-time temperature (ER = 1.21%, 95%CI:1.03%,1.39%) was greater than that in daytime (ER = 0.86%, 95%CI:0.72%,1.00%). Compared with the 1980s, the attributable fractions (AFs) for daytime and night-time temperature change during the 1990s–2010s were 0.59% (95%eCI:0.54%,0.67%) and 0.73% (95%eCI:0.69%,0.77%), respectively. Spatially, the higher AFs of night-time temperature were more widely distributed than daytime temperature. The non-fatal injury risk attributed to night-time temperature was stronger than daytime temperature, and increased night-time temperatures posed a heavier injury burden compared with daytime temperature in China. Our findings indicate that high night-time temperature is an important injury risk in the context of climate change.

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.