阿尔卑斯山的长期降雪趋势和变化

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Michele Bozzoli, Alice Crespi, Michael Matiu, Bruno Majone, Lorenzo Giovannini, Dino Zardi, Yuri Brugnara, Alessio Bozzo, Daniele Cat Berro, Luca Mercalli, Giacomo Bertoldi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

降雪尤其受到气候变化的影响,因此迫切需要了解降雪深度(HN)趋势的时空变异性。然而,由于缺乏连续的长期时间序列,对大面积降雪深度历史观测数据的分析往往受到阻碍。本研究利用阿尔卑斯山不同海拔地区 46 个观测点的 1920-2020 年观测时间序列,对降雪深度趋势进行了研究。为了辨别多年来 HN 的模式和变化,我们的分析还侧重于降水量(P)、平均气温(TMEAN)和大尺度天气描述指标(即北大西洋涛动(NAO)、北极涛动(AO)和大西洋多年代涛动(AMO)指数)等关键参数。我们的研究结果表明,在过去 100 年中,海拔 2000 米以下地区的冬季降水量略有增加,但阿尔卑斯山上空的 HN 却有所减少,尤其是在南部和低海拔地区。西南地区和东南地区的平均降水量分别减少了 4.9% 和 3.8%/十年。北部地区的相对损失较小(2.3%/十年)。HN 的负趋势主要是由于 TMEAN 每十年上升了 0.15°C。HN 的大部分减少主要发生在 1980-2020 年间,这是 TMEAN 更明显增加的结果。HN 与 TMEAN、NAO、AO 之间的相关性随时间的变化也证实了这一点。这表明,近年来温度、降水和大气模式的有利组合对降雪的发生变得更加重要。另一方面,降雪与 AMO 指数没有相关性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Long-term snowfall trends and variability in the Alps

Long-term snowfall trends and variability in the Alps

Snow is particularly impacted by climate change and therefore there is an urgent need to understand the temporal and spatial variability of depth of snowfall (HN) trends. However, the analysis of historical HN observations on large-scale areas is often impeded by lack of continuous long-term time series availability. This study investigates HN trends using observed time series spanning the period 1920–2020 from 46 sites in the Alps at different elevations. To discern patterns and variations in HN over the years, our analysis focuses also on key parameters such as precipitation (P), mean air temperature (TMEAN), and large-scale synoptic descriptors, that is, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices. Our findings reveal that in the last 100 years and below 2000 m a.s.l., despite a slight increase in winter precipitation, there was a decrease in HN over the Alps, especially for southern and low-elevation sites. The South-West and South-East regions experienced an average loss of 4.9 and 3.8%/decade, respectively. A smaller relative loss was found in the Northern region (2.3%/decade). The negative HN trends can be mainly explained by an increase of TMEAN by 0.15°C/decade. Most of the decrease in HN occurred mainly between 1980 and 2020, as a result of a more pronounced increase in TMEAN. This is also confirmed by the change of the running correlation between HN and TMEAN, NAO, AO over time, which until 1980 were not correlated at all, while the correlation increased in later years. This suggests that in more recent years favourable combinations of temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pattern have become more crucial for snowfall to occur. On the other hand, no correlation was found with the AMO index.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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