Tomasz Kur, Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Malgorzata Wińska, Henryk Dobslaw, Jolanta Nastula, Aleksander Partyka, Santiago Belda, Christian Bizouard, Dale Boggs, Sara Bruni, Lue Chen, Mike Chin, Sujata Dhar, Robert Dill, PengShuo Duan, Jose M. Ferrandiz, Junyang Gou, Richard Gross, Sonia Guessoum, Songtao Han, Robert Heinkelmann, ChengLi Huang, Christopher Irrgang, Jacek Kudrys, Jia Li, Marcin Ligas, Lintao Liu, Weitao Lu, Volker Mayer, Wei Miao, Maciej Michalczak, Sadegh Modiri, Michiel Otten, Todd Ratcliff, Shrishail Raut, Jan Saynisch-Wagner, Matthias Schartner, Erik Schoenemann, Harald Schuh, M. Kiani Shahvandi, Benedikt Soja, Xiaoqing Su, Daniela Thaller, Maik Thomas, Guocheng Wang, Yuanwei Wu, CanCan Xu, Xueqing Xu, Xinyu Yang, Xin Zhao, Zhijin Zhou
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引用次数: 0
摘要
人们对地球方位参数(EOP)的兴趣与日俱增,从而产生了各种地球方位参数预测算法方法,以及对不同输入数据的利用,包括来自不同运行数据中心的观测到的地球方位参数值和建模的有效角动量函数。考虑到这些发展和最近出现的新方法,2021-2022 年开展了第二次地球定向参数预测比较活动(第二次 EOP PCC)。该活动由波兰国家科学院巴丹-科斯米契尼奇中心(Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk)牵头,与德国地球研究中心(Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum)合作,并由国际地球自转和参考系统服务组织(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service)赞助。本文对第二届 EOP PCC 期间提交的极地运动预测进行了分析和评估,预测范围为 10 至 30 天。我们的分析表明,预测结果非常可靠,在提交的文件中仅偶尔发现了一些差异。我们通过(a)计算与 2021 年 9 月至 2022 年 12 月极地运动观测数据相对的平均绝对误差,以及(b)评估预测结果在时间上的稳定性,来证明 EOP 预测的准确性。分析表明,极地运动 x 和 y 分量(分别为 PMx 和 PMy)的结果并不相同。与 PMx 相比,PMy 的预测通常更准确,在所有提交的文件中的分布也更小。我们对参赛者之间的相似性进行了分析,以说明哪些方法和输入数据可提供相似的输出结果。我们还准备了极地运动预测方法的排名,以总结此次活动的成果。
Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign
Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum functions. Considering these developments and recently emerged new methodologies, the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) was pursued in 2021–2022. The campaign was led by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk in cooperation with Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. This paper provides the analysis and evaluation of the polar motion predictions submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC with the prediction horizons between 10 and 30 days. Our analysis shows that predictions are highly reliable with only a few occasional discrepancies identified in the submitted files. We demonstrate the accuracy of EOP predictions by (a) calculating the mean absolute error relative to polar motion observations from September 2021 through December 2022 and (b) assessing the stability of the predictions in time. The analysis shows unequal results for the x and y components of polar motion (PMx and PMy, respectively). Predictions of PMy are usually more accurate and have a smaller spread across all submitted files when compared to PMx. We present an analysis of similarity between the participants to indicate what methods and input data give comparable output. We also prepared the ranking of prediction methods for polar motion summarizing the achievements of the campaign.
期刊介绍:
Marking AGU’s second new open access journal in the last 12 months, Earth and Space Science is the only journal that reflects the expansive range of science represented by AGU’s 62,000 members, including all of the Earth, planetary, and space sciences, and related fields in environmental science, geoengineering, space engineering, and biogeochemistry.