Structural and hydrodynamic modelling of the probability of breakage of branching and plate coral colonies

Climate change is amplifying the intensity of severe weather events, with coastal regions such as coral reefs facing heightened vulnerability to cyclonic wave forces. Structural models to predict bending stress and breakage of corals have been developed for coral colonies to enhance comprehension and prediction of the effects of hydrodynamic disturbances on coral reefs. However, there is scope for improving these predictions by evolving the methodology for quantifying complicated and variable coral morphologies. This study aims to predict breakage thresholds for two of the most prevalent coral morphologies: branching and plate corals (using Acropora muricata and Acropora hyacinthus as study species). Laboratory and field measurements were taken to assess coral morphologies and material characteristics. Morphological features of 47 branching colonies and 100 plate colonies were surveyed at the study site (Heron Reef, southern GBR) and the tensile strength of 80 coral samples was obtained by in situ and laboratory testing. Three-dimensional structural models of branching and plate coral colonies were developed, encompassing multiple coral colonies with varying morphological patterns from relatively shallow (5–7 m) to deep (9–12 m) zones. Model results were calibrated and verified with existing data, revealing that velocity thresholds of 1.7 m/s and 5.0 m/s would destroy 90% of the simulated branching coral structures growing in the deep and shallow parts of the forereef zone, respectively. In contrast, the plate corals have sufficient margins of safety even in extreme flow conditions (7 m/s). Additionally, skeletal strength and structural performance were adjusted based on varying degrees of bioerosion inside the coral skeleton. A higher probability of breakage was observed as the extent of bioerosion increased. The laboratory experiments of hydrodynamic loads on coral colony show that the sheltering effect due to one or two neighbouring colonies in the upwave direction is negligible. These models can be easily adjusted to provide predictions for other coral species, shapes, levels of bioerosion, and locations (e.g., sheltered or exposed areas). Comprehensive predictions about the level of expected damage and rubble generation in different areas can be used in reef management planning and restoration prioritization.