Impact of carbon charge policy on mode shifts in public transportation

Driven by rapid industrialization and urbanization, increased carbon emissions in urban transportation pose a significant environmental challenge. Promoting public transportation and managing travel structures are essential for reducing emissions. Despite being proposed as an innovative solution, the urban implementation of carbon charge policies remains limited. This study explores carbon charge policies and analyzes pathways to shift car travel to low-carbon public transportation modes. Dynamic changes in emission hot spots are captured to define the carbon charge zones utilizing the emerging hot spot analysis method, which considers spatiotemporal autocorrelation and statistical validation. By integrating carbon charge into the Multi-Agent Transport Simulation (MATSim) platform, this study overcomes traditional policy tools’ limitations in capturing traffic dynamics and mode substitution effects. Experiments conducted in Shenzhen’s Futian District demonstrate the effectiveness of carbon charge policies in reducing car emissions, particularly during evening peak hours. The findings provide insights for sustainable urban transportation planning and management.