Jo A Werba, Graziella V DiRenzo, Adrianne B Brand, Evan H Campbell Grant
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引用次数: 0
摘要
不确定性往往会妨碍及时做出管理决策。监测可以减少两类关键的不确定性。首先,监测有助于减少系统运行方式的结构不确定性,并为人们对系统运行方式的预期提供支持。其次,监测有助于减少系统动态驱动因素的参数不确定性。通过将监测数据与定量模型相结合,我们可以减少结构和参数的不确定性。为了证明这一点,我们重点研究了美国联邦濒危物种--雪兰蝾螈(Plethodon shenandoah)。早期的研究表明,神户螈的灭绝风险来自于与同种蝾螈(Plethodon cinereus)的竞争。然而,最近的研究发现,这种说法的支持度并不高,相反,非生物因素(如湿度和温度)推动了雪豹的持续生存。通过长期的监测数据,我们发现虽然竞争可能会导致神仙果灭绝的风险,但地表湿度的测量结果更能预测神仙果的栖息动态。此外,我们还发现,当 P. cinereus 出现时,神仙果的发现率会降低,这表明发现概率与实际竞争情况存在混淆,因此应避免根据未调整的出现观测数据进行推断。在高度不确定的情况下,使用多种调查方法可以更有力地了解系统的驱动因素,从而增加管理灭绝风险的机会。
Reducing uncertainty with iterative model updating parses effects of competition and environment on salamander occupancy.
Making timely management decisions is often hindered by uncertainty. Monitoring reduces two key types of uncertainty. First, it serves to reduce structural uncertainty of how the system works and provides support for expectations of how a system works. Second, it serves to reduce parametric uncertainty of the drivers of system dynamics. By combining monitoring data and quantitative models, we can reduce structural and parametric uncertainty. To demonstrate this, we focus on the Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), a United States Federally Endangered Species. Early work suggested that P. shenandoah extinction risk results from competition with a conspecific (Plethodon cinereus). However, more recent work has found equivocal support for this claim, instead suggesting that abiotic factors, such as moisture and temperature, drive P. shenandoah persistence. Using long-term monitoring data, we find that while competition may play a part in P. shenandoah extinction risk, measures of surface moisture are better predictors of occupancy dynamics. Further, we find decreased detection rates of P. shenandoah when P. cinereus is present, suggesting a conflation of detection probability with actual competition, which cautions against making inference from unadjusted observations of occurrence. Using multiple lines of inquiry allows for more robust understanding of system drivers in the face of high uncertainty, increasing opportunities to manage extinction risk.
期刊介绍:
Oecologia publishes innovative ecological research of international interest. We seek reviews, advances in methodology, and original contributions, emphasizing the following areas:
Population ecology, Plant-microbe-animal interactions, Ecosystem ecology, Community ecology, Global change ecology, Conservation ecology,
Behavioral ecology and Physiological Ecology.
In general, studies that are purely descriptive, mathematical, documentary, and/or natural history will not be considered.