Lucas de Souza Luna, Rafael Pedro de Souza Nascimento, Paula Esbaltar de Oliveira, Adeilton Gonçalves da Silva Junior, Márcio Bezerra-Santos, Rodrigo José Videres Cordeiro de Brito, Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo, Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza
{"title":"2012-2022 年巴西艾滋病死亡率：时间序列研究。","authors":"Lucas de Souza Luna, Rafael Pedro de Souza Nascimento, Paula Esbaltar de Oliveira, Adeilton Gonçalves da Silva Junior, Márcio Bezerra-Santos, Rodrigo José Videres Cordeiro de Brito, Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo, Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza","doi":"10.1186/s12981-024-00669-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a health problem in Brazil and worldwide. Without treatment, the infection can progress to Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), with a high mortality potential. The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend of AIDS mortality in Brazil, macro-regions, federal units and their respective capitals, from 2012 to 2022.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This is a time-series study of all AIDS deaths in Brazil from 2012 to 2022. The study included the annual number of deaths and the crude and standardized mortality rates. The Joinpoint regression model was used for the time analysis of the standardized rates. Annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated. A 95% confidence interval (CI) and a 5% significance level were used.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During the period analyzed, 128,678 AIDS deaths were recorded in Brazil, with a crude mortality rate of 6.3/100,000 and a standardized mortality rate of 5.3/100,000. From 2012 to 2020, three regions showed a declining trend in AIDS mortality: Central-West (AAPC - 2.3%; 95%CI -4.3 to -0.21; p = 0.03), Southeast (AAPC - 5.6%; 95%CI -6.8 to -4.0; p < 0.001), and South (AAPC - 4.4%; 95%CI -5.27 to -3.6; p < 0.001). There was also a downward trend in 10 states and 10 capitals. There was an increase in the number of deaths from 2020 onwards in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions compared to 2019.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>There was a downward trend in AIDS mortality from 2012 to 2020 and an upward trend from 2020 to 2022. The regional differences observed could reflect the social disparities that exist in Brazil. In addition, the Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on the process of dealing with HIV in Brazil.</p>","PeriodicalId":7503,"journal":{"name":"AIDS Research and Therapy","volume":"21 1","pages":"80"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11536946/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"AIDS mortality in Brazil, 2012-2022: a time series study.\",\"authors\":\"Lucas de Souza Luna, Rafael Pedro de Souza Nascimento, Paula Esbaltar de Oliveira, Adeilton Gonçalves da Silva Junior, Márcio Bezerra-Santos, Rodrigo José Videres Cordeiro de Brito, Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo, Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s12981-024-00669-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a health problem in Brazil and worldwide. Without treatment, the infection can progress to Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), with a high mortality potential. The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend of AIDS mortality in Brazil, macro-regions, federal units and their respective capitals, from 2012 to 2022.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This is a time-series study of all AIDS deaths in Brazil from 2012 to 2022. The study included the annual number of deaths and the crude and standardized mortality rates. The Joinpoint regression model was used for the time analysis of the standardized rates. Annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated. A 95% confidence interval (CI) and a 5% significance level were used.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During the period analyzed, 128,678 AIDS deaths were recorded in Brazil, with a crude mortality rate of 6.3/100,000 and a standardized mortality rate of 5.3/100,000. From 2012 to 2020, three regions showed a declining trend in AIDS mortality: Central-West (AAPC - 2.3%; 95%CI -4.3 to -0.21; p = 0.03), Southeast (AAPC - 5.6%; 95%CI -6.8 to -4.0; p < 0.001), and South (AAPC - 4.4%; 95%CI -5.27 to -3.6; p < 0.001). There was also a downward trend in 10 states and 10 capitals. There was an increase in the number of deaths from 2020 onwards in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions compared to 2019.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>There was a downward trend in AIDS mortality from 2012 to 2020 and an upward trend from 2020 to 2022. The regional differences observed could reflect the social disparities that exist in Brazil. In addition, the Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on the process of dealing with HIV in Brazil.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7503,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"AIDS Research and Therapy\",\"volume\":\"21 1\",\"pages\":\"80\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11536946/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"AIDS Research and Therapy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12981-024-00669-6\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"AIDS Research and Therapy","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12981-024-00669-6","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
AIDS mortality in Brazil, 2012-2022: a time series study.
Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a health problem in Brazil and worldwide. Without treatment, the infection can progress to Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), with a high mortality potential. The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend of AIDS mortality in Brazil, macro-regions, federal units and their respective capitals, from 2012 to 2022.
Methods: This is a time-series study of all AIDS deaths in Brazil from 2012 to 2022. The study included the annual number of deaths and the crude and standardized mortality rates. The Joinpoint regression model was used for the time analysis of the standardized rates. Annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated. A 95% confidence interval (CI) and a 5% significance level were used.
Results: During the period analyzed, 128,678 AIDS deaths were recorded in Brazil, with a crude mortality rate of 6.3/100,000 and a standardized mortality rate of 5.3/100,000. From 2012 to 2020, three regions showed a declining trend in AIDS mortality: Central-West (AAPC - 2.3%; 95%CI -4.3 to -0.21; p = 0.03), Southeast (AAPC - 5.6%; 95%CI -6.8 to -4.0; p < 0.001), and South (AAPC - 4.4%; 95%CI -5.27 to -3.6; p < 0.001). There was also a downward trend in 10 states and 10 capitals. There was an increase in the number of deaths from 2020 onwards in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions compared to 2019.
Conclusion: There was a downward trend in AIDS mortality from 2012 to 2020 and an upward trend from 2020 to 2022. The regional differences observed could reflect the social disparities that exist in Brazil. In addition, the Covid-19 pandemic has had an impact on the process of dealing with HIV in Brazil.
期刊介绍：
AIDS Research and Therapy publishes articles on basic science, translational, clinical, social, epidemiological, behavioral and educational sciences articles focused on the treatment and prevention of HIV/AIDS, and the search for the cure. The Journal publishes articles on novel and developing treatment strategies for AIDS as well as on the outcomes of established treatment strategies. Original research articles on animal models that form an essential part of the AIDS treatment research are also considered
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