Light-duty gasoline vehicle emission deterioration insights from large-scale inspection/maintenance data: The synergistic impact of usage characteristics

Accurately estimating vehicle emissions is crucial for effective air quality management. As key data for emission inventory construction, emission factors (EFs) are influenced by vehicle usage characteristics and experience deterioration. Current deterioration models often employ single-factor approaches based on vehicle age or accumulated mileage, which fail to capture the effects of varying usage intensities within the same mileage or age intervals. This study addressed this limitation by developing a novel emission deterioration model that incorporates multi-dimensional usage characteristics and that utilizes a large-scale inspection and maintenance (I/M) dataset for light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs). The modeling results reveal distinct deterioration patterns for different pollutants and highlight the synergistic effects of the usage duration and intensity: natural aging significantly impacts HC and NOx emissions, while CO emissions are more strongly affected by intensive use. Specifically, China V LDGVs that were driven 4 × 10⁴ km/yr exhibited HC, CO, and NOx deterioration rates per mile that were approximately 4.1 % lower, 10.3 % higher, and 1.1 % higher, respectively, than those of vehicles driven 2 × 10⁴ km/yr as the mileage increased from 5 × 10⁴ km to 10 × 10⁴ km. By leveraging timely emission data and explicitly accounting for usage intensity, this study corrected biases in local emission estimates by 5–85 % with respect to estimates from commonly used models. This framework enables the development of more effective control strategies and refinements to policy evaluations in megacities with I/M programs.