Ground ozone rise during the 2022 shanghai lockdown caused by the unfavorable emission reduction ratio of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds

Ground-level ozone (O₃) pollution has shifted from a scientific issue to a key focus of governmental action in China. In recent years, the concentration of NO₂ in Shanghai has shown a decreasing trend of 3.7% annually, but ozone concentrations have exhibited significant interannual variability, particularly with a noticeable increase in 2022. This study focuses on investigating the mechanisms behind the increase in ozone concentration during the COVID-19 pandemic control period in 2022 in Shanghai, utilizing a combination of ground observation data, observation-based models, and chemical transport models for analysis. The results indicate that during the lockdown period, the mean values of daily maximum 8-h average O₃ concentrations (MDA8 O₃) in Shanghai increased by 17 μg/m³, with emission-related factors contributing 65.3%, primarily due to a blanket reduction in VOCs and NOx emissions during the lockdown, with a reduction ratio close to 1:1. However, this reduction ratio and intensity are not sufficiently reasonable to alleviate ozone pollution. Meanwhile, adverse meteorological conditions further exacerbated this effect, contributing 34.7%, with temperature rise having the greatest impact. Results from the chemical transport model show that with the total reduction in NOx and VOCs emissions unchanged, the greater the reduction in VOC emissions and the better the reduction effect on ozone pollution, reducing MDA8 O₃ by approximately 10 μg/m³, especially for the control of reactive compounds such as alkenes, aromatics, and OVOCs. However, if the reduction ratio of NOx is greater than that of VOCs, ozone concentrations may not decrease but instead increase. This indicates that ozone concentration is influenced not only by the intensity of emissions reduction but also by the ratio of emissions reduction between NOx and VOCs. Our study emphasizes the critical role of carefully designed strategies, focusing on controlling the ratio of VOCs to NOx and increasing the intensity of VOCs reduction, to effectively alleviate ozone pollution in urban areas.