Effects of temperature on asexual reproduction and jellyfish booms of Aurelia aurita: Insights from mathematical modeling

Elucidating the benthic stage growth and reproductive mechanisms of Aurelia aurita contributes to understanding irregular jellyfish blooms. This paper establishes a four-stage life history model of A. aurita (Polyp–Strobila–Ephyra–Medusa) to investigate the influence of seasonal temperature variations on the abundance of A. aurita. Sensitivity analyses indicate that jellyfish are most sensitive to bottom-up supplementation, with strobilation identified as an essential process in their life cycle. We explore the effects of parameters directly associated with strobilation in the Jiaozhou Bay area on population size, summarizing the interannual variations across the four stages of A. aurita, which aligns with empirical data. The investigation reveals that (i) consistent with recent biological literature, strobilation of A. aurita in temperate regions primarily occurs during periods of increasing spring sea surface temperatures rather than during autumn temperature declines, leading to summer jellyfish blooms; (ii) regression and subsequent strobilation favor an increase in the pelagic medusae population; (iii) the influence of rising sea surface temperatures due to climate change on the growth and reproduction of A. aurita manifests as initial stimulation followed by inhibition; (iv) earlier strobilation in spring may lead to more extensive A. aurita outbreaks in summer, providing insights for early warning of jellyfish blooms.