解密孟加拉国黄麻产量下降之谜:气候危机还是塑料困境

IF 5.4 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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引用次数: 0

摘要

孟加拉国是亚洲最易受气候变化影响的地区之一,其经济主要以农业为主。尽管黄麻曾是重要的经济作物,但其产量已持续下降。然而,使用塑料制品代替黄麻制品的情况正在迅速增加。本研究调查了塑料和气候变化是否严重威胁孟加拉国的黄麻作物。数据集包括 1988 年至 2021 年的观测数据,并使用了多种方法,包括增强型迪基-富勒(ADF)检验、约翰森协整回归估计器和完全修正的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)。研究结果表明,洪水和降雨严重损害了孟加拉国的黄麻生产。然而,以塑料使用量为衡量标准的塑料使用对黄麻生产并无统计学意义上的重大影响。因此,为保障孟加拉国的黄麻生产,政府应优先考虑气候适应性强的农业措施,如改善洪水管理和引进抗洪黄麻品种。此外,推广黄麻制品而非塑料制品,有助于振兴黄麻产业,减少塑料污染。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Decoding the mystery of Bangladesh's jute decline: A climate crisis or plastic predicament
Bangladesh is one of the areas in Asia most vulnerable to climate change, with a mostly agricultural economy. Although jute was formerly an important cash crop, its production has steadily declined. However, the use of plastic products instead of jute-made goods is increasing rapidly. This study investigates whether plastic and climate change seriously threaten jute crops in Bangladesh. The dataset includes observations from 1988 to 2021, and various methods are used, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen cointegrating regression estimators, and fully modified Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The findings show that floods and rainfall significantly harm jute production in Bangladesh. However, plastic usage which is measured by the use of plastic has no statistically significant effects on jute production. Therefore, to safeguard jute production in Bangladesh, the government should prioritize climate-resilient agricultural practices, such as improved flood management and the introduction of flood-resistant jute varieties. Additionally, promoting jute-made products over plastic alternatives can help revive the jute industry and reduce plastic pollution.
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来源期刊
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
7.80
自引率
2.30%
发文量
49
审稿时长
57 days
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