Connectivity conservation to mitigate climate and land-cover change impacts on Borneo

Enhancing connectivity between protected areas is crucial for facilitating species range shifts in response to climate change. Yet spatial planning for this connectivity often overlooks the combined impacts of climate and land-cover change, particularly in tropical regions where habitat loss is a more immediate biodiversity threat.

We explore the need for connectivity between protected areas to mitigate the dual impacts of climate- and land-cover change on Borneo. Using habitat suitability models and combined climate and land-cover change forecasts, we develop connectivity models for present and future scenarios, identifying optimal connections between protected areas for 81 species. By considering restoration and opportunity economic costs, we also explore the cost-benefit trade-offs of implementing connectivity plans.

Connectivity solutions varied among species, but often converged on the same connections between protected areas, with contemporary connections traversing 6 to 40 km and comprising 67 % forest cover, on average. By the 2080s there were fewer connections, and while many were shorter, they also comprised poorer quality habitat, reflecting reductions in forest cover and species distributions. As a result, the economic cost of creating corridors between protected areas was estimated to be 65 % higher in 2080 than in 2020.

Our analysis highlights the urgent need to prioritize connectivity interventions early to maximize long-term benefits for multiple species facing climate-change disruption while minimizing costs. However, conservation planning in tropical regions is complex, given high rates of forest degradation and loss. Implementing our approach at finer spatial scales could help identify cost-effective areas to prioritize landscape connectivity, helping safeguard tropical biodiversity amid changing environmental conditions.