Johan Björck , Margaret McNamee , Jonathan Wahlqvist , Magnus Larson , Fainaz Inamdeen
{"title":"适用于瑞典的多重危害评估方法","authors":"Johan Björck , Margaret McNamee , Jonathan Wahlqvist , Magnus Larson , Fainaz Inamdeen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive efforts through various international initiatives to reduce global warming, it has been determined that human induced climate change is here, that the present scale of disruption of the climate is unprecedented and will continue. Increasing weather volatility can be expected, which will most likely increase exposure to weather related hazards, e.g. wildfires, flooding. The aim of this paper is to present an index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method to assess wildfires and flooding hazard for two municipalities within Sweden. The method is designed to be used by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) for planning purposes and can be modified to take the local FRS's capabilities and local conditions into account, thereby improving hazard preparedness at a local level. The analysis presented indicates that, while the frequency of multi-hazard overlap from wildfires and flooding is greatest in more northern parts of Sweden, the method provides important information even when applied to areas with limited overlap. A variation of the hazard assessment using a box kernel sliding window was studied to investigate the sensitivity of the model for rapid variations of an individual hazard level. Given that resource needs will typically spread over several days for large scale natural hazards, the box kernel approach is valuable in helping to identify a span of days when resources associated with incident response might be needed. In the future, the model should be expanded to include additional single hazards, the application to additional municipalities and extension to FRS planning exercises for natural hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A methodology for assessing multiple hazards applied to Sweden\",\"authors\":\"Johan Björck , Margaret McNamee , Jonathan Wahlqvist , Magnus Larson , Fainaz Inamdeen\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Despite extensive efforts through various international initiatives to reduce global warming, it has been determined that human induced climate change is here, that the present scale of disruption of the climate is unprecedented and will continue. Increasing weather volatility can be expected, which will most likely increase exposure to weather related hazards, e.g. wildfires, flooding. The aim of this paper is to present an index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method to assess wildfires and flooding hazard for two municipalities within Sweden. The method is designed to be used by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) for planning purposes and can be modified to take the local FRS's capabilities and local conditions into account, thereby improving hazard preparedness at a local level. The analysis presented indicates that, while the frequency of multi-hazard overlap from wildfires and flooding is greatest in more northern parts of Sweden, the method provides important information even when applied to areas with limited overlap. A variation of the hazard assessment using a box kernel sliding window was studied to investigate the sensitivity of the model for rapid variations of an individual hazard level. Given that resource needs will typically spread over several days for large scale natural hazards, the box kernel approach is valuable in helping to identify a span of days when resources associated with incident response might be needed. In the future, the model should be expanded to include additional single hazards, the application to additional municipalities and extension to FRS planning exercises for natural hazards.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13915,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International journal of disaster risk reduction\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International journal of disaster risk reduction\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924006964\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924006964","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A methodology for assessing multiple hazards applied to Sweden
Despite extensive efforts through various international initiatives to reduce global warming, it has been determined that human induced climate change is here, that the present scale of disruption of the climate is unprecedented and will continue. Increasing weather volatility can be expected, which will most likely increase exposure to weather related hazards, e.g. wildfires, flooding. The aim of this paper is to present an index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method to assess wildfires and flooding hazard for two municipalities within Sweden. The method is designed to be used by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) for planning purposes and can be modified to take the local FRS's capabilities and local conditions into account, thereby improving hazard preparedness at a local level. The analysis presented indicates that, while the frequency of multi-hazard overlap from wildfires and flooding is greatest in more northern parts of Sweden, the method provides important information even when applied to areas with limited overlap. A variation of the hazard assessment using a box kernel sliding window was studied to investigate the sensitivity of the model for rapid variations of an individual hazard level. Given that resource needs will typically spread over several days for large scale natural hazards, the box kernel approach is valuable in helping to identify a span of days when resources associated with incident response might be needed. In the future, the model should be expanded to include additional single hazards, the application to additional municipalities and extension to FRS planning exercises for natural hazards.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international.
Key topics:-
-multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters
-the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques
-discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels
-disasters associated with climate change
-vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends
-emerging risks
-resilience against disasters.
The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.