Indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance − accounting for precipitation seasonality and climate change in southwestern U.S. drylands

Spatially explicit and climate sensitive information on the responses of ecosystems to global change processes is required for strategic planning and prioritization of conservation and restoration. Indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance (R&R) are used increasingly to understand the influence of climate on ecosystem responses to these change processes and determine effective management strategies. We developed landscape-scale indicators of R&R based on climate regimes for southwest U.S. drylands that accounted for precipitation seasonality and climate change using 1 km Daymet climate data (1980–2019). We used temperature, precipitation, and monsoon index data to construct climate sensitive and ecologically meaningful climate regimes mirroring the soil temperature and moisture regimes in the U.S. National Cooperative Soil Survey data and Ecological Site Descriptions that are widely used by managers in the western U.S. We evaluated relationships of the climate regimes and R&R indicators to the dominant ecological types, plant species, including the widespread exotic annual, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), plant functional groups, and annual burn probabilities. The climate regimes were associated with the dominant ecological types and plant functional groups. Particularly important was identification of a monsoon index value (0.30) to delineate areas with a summer moist (ustic) precipitation regime as indicated by the frequency of C4 vs. C3 grass species. Cover of cheatgrass, a C3 species, was highest in warm (mesic) and very warm (hypermesic) areas with a winter moist (xeric) or dry (aridic) precipitation regime and corresponded well to the resistance indicator. Annual burn probabilities were highest in areas with a winter moist precipitation regime and high precipitation (productivity) and did not correspond directly to cheatgrass cover. Changes in climate regimes from 1980 to 1999 to 2000–2019 resulted in decreases in both R&R by about 10 %. Climate-sensitive R&R indicators can be used in conservation and restoration planning to determine effective strategies and locate management activities to maximize ecological benefits and returns on investment. Recent changes in climate indicate the need to assess the direction and rate of climate change within the focal area and consider the likely effects on R&R when developing management strategies.