{"title":"利用流行病学和分子监测数据调查和预测传染病动态。","authors":"Gerardo Chowell , Pavel Skums","doi":"10.1016/j.plrev.2024.10.011","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integration of viral genomic data into public health surveillance has revolutionized our ability to track and forecast infectious disease dynamics. This review addresses two critical aspects of infectious disease forecasting and monitoring: the methodological workflow for epidemic forecasting and the transformative role of molecular surveillance. We first present a detailed approach for validating epidemic models, emphasizing an iterative workflow that utilizes ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based models to investigate and forecast disease dynamics. We recommend a more structured approach to model validation, systematically addressing key stages such as model calibration, assessment of structural and practical parameter identifiability, and effective uncertainty propagation in forecasts. Furthermore, we underscore the importance of incorporating multiple data streams by applying both simulated and real epidemiological data from the COVID-19 pandemic to produce more reliable forecasts with quantified uncertainty. Additionally, we emphasize the pivotal role of viral genomic data in tracking transmission dynamics and pathogen evolution. By leveraging advanced computational tools such as Bayesian phylogenetics and phylodynamics, researchers can more accurately estimate transmission clusters and reconstruct outbreak histories, thereby improving data-driven modeling and forecasting and informing targeted public health interventions. Finally, we discuss the transformative potential of integrating molecular epidemiology with mathematical modeling to complement and enhance epidemic forecasting and optimize public health strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":403,"journal":{"name":"Physics of Life Reviews","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 294-327"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Investigating and forecasting infectious disease dynamics using epidemiological and molecular surveillance data\",\"authors\":\"Gerardo Chowell , Pavel Skums\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.plrev.2024.10.011\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The integration of viral genomic data into public health surveillance has revolutionized our ability to track and forecast infectious disease dynamics. This review addresses two critical aspects of infectious disease forecasting and monitoring: the methodological workflow for epidemic forecasting and the transformative role of molecular surveillance. We first present a detailed approach for validating epidemic models, emphasizing an iterative workflow that utilizes ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based models to investigate and forecast disease dynamics. We recommend a more structured approach to model validation, systematically addressing key stages such as model calibration, assessment of structural and practical parameter identifiability, and effective uncertainty propagation in forecasts. Furthermore, we underscore the importance of incorporating multiple data streams by applying both simulated and real epidemiological data from the COVID-19 pandemic to produce more reliable forecasts with quantified uncertainty. Additionally, we emphasize the pivotal role of viral genomic data in tracking transmission dynamics and pathogen evolution. By leveraging advanced computational tools such as Bayesian phylogenetics and phylodynamics, researchers can more accurately estimate transmission clusters and reconstruct outbreak histories, thereby improving data-driven modeling and forecasting and informing targeted public health interventions. Finally, we discuss the transformative potential of integrating molecular epidemiology with mathematical modeling to complement and enhance epidemic forecasting and optimize public health strategies.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":403,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Physics of Life Reviews\",\"volume\":\"51 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 294-327\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":13.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Physics of Life Reviews\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1571064524001350\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Physics of Life Reviews","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1571064524001350","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Investigating and forecasting infectious disease dynamics using epidemiological and molecular surveillance data
The integration of viral genomic data into public health surveillance has revolutionized our ability to track and forecast infectious disease dynamics. This review addresses two critical aspects of infectious disease forecasting and monitoring: the methodological workflow for epidemic forecasting and the transformative role of molecular surveillance. We first present a detailed approach for validating epidemic models, emphasizing an iterative workflow that utilizes ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based models to investigate and forecast disease dynamics. We recommend a more structured approach to model validation, systematically addressing key stages such as model calibration, assessment of structural and practical parameter identifiability, and effective uncertainty propagation in forecasts. Furthermore, we underscore the importance of incorporating multiple data streams by applying both simulated and real epidemiological data from the COVID-19 pandemic to produce more reliable forecasts with quantified uncertainty. Additionally, we emphasize the pivotal role of viral genomic data in tracking transmission dynamics and pathogen evolution. By leveraging advanced computational tools such as Bayesian phylogenetics and phylodynamics, researchers can more accurately estimate transmission clusters and reconstruct outbreak histories, thereby improving data-driven modeling and forecasting and informing targeted public health interventions. Finally, we discuss the transformative potential of integrating molecular epidemiology with mathematical modeling to complement and enhance epidemic forecasting and optimize public health strategies.
期刊介绍:
Physics of Life Reviews, published quarterly, is an international journal dedicated to review articles on the physics of living systems, complex phenomena in biological systems, and related fields including artificial life, robotics, mathematical bio-semiotics, and artificial intelligent systems. Serving as a unifying force across disciplines, the journal explores living systems comprehensively—from molecules to populations, genetics to mind, and artificial systems modeling these phenomena. Inviting reviews from actively engaged researchers, the journal seeks broad, critical, and accessible contributions that address recent progress and sometimes controversial accounts in the field.