了解疫苗犹豫不决导致的流行病振荡。

IF 2.6 4区工程技术 Q1 Mathematics

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI:10.3934/mbe.2024299

Anthony Morciglio, R K P Zia, James M Hyman, Yi Jiang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

疫苗犹豫不决有可能逆转在应对疫苗可预防疾病方面取得的进展。我们使用了一个带有疫苗接种博弈论模型和 COVID-19 大流行病参数的 SIS 模型，来研究疫苗犹豫对流行病动态的影响。该系统表现出三种渐进行为：完全拒绝接受疫苗、完全接受和振荡。随着对感染恐惧的增加，稳定的流行状态变成了周期性振荡。我们的研究结果表明，管理相对于疫苗接种的感染恐惧对于成功的大规模疫苗接种至关重要。

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Understanding the oscillations of an epidemic due to vaccine hesitancy.

Vaccine hesitancy threatens to reverse the progress in tackling vaccine-preventable diseases. We used an $ SIS $ model with a game theory model for vaccination and parameters from the COVID-19 pandemic to study how vaccine hesitancy impacts epidemic dynamics. The system showed three asymptotic behaviors: total rejection of vaccinations, complete acceptance, and oscillations. With increasing fear of infection, stable endemic states become periodic oscillations. Our results suggest that managing fear of infection relative to vaccination is vital to successful mass vaccinations.

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来源期刊

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 工程技术-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

7.70%

发文量

586

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE) is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal promoting cutting-edge research, technology transfer and knowledge translation about complex data and information processing. MBE publishes Research articles (long and original research); Communications (short and novel research); Expository papers; Technology Transfer and Knowledge Translation reports (description of new technologies and products); Announcements and Industrial Progress and News (announcements and even advertisement, including major conferences).