通过第三剂疫苗接种在泰国消灭 COVID-19 的可能性:建模方法。

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics
Pannathon Kreabkhontho, Watchara Teparos, Thitiya Theparod
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引用次数: 0

摘要

COVID-19 大流行继续对全球公共卫生构成重大挑战,因此有必要制定有效的疫苗接种策略以减少疾病传播。在泰国,COVID-19 疫情已经历了多次波及,促使人们采取了包括疫苗接种活动在内的各种控制措施。了解疾病传播的动态和疫苗接种策略的影响对于指导公共卫生干预和优化疫情控制工作至关重要。在本研究中,我们建立了一个名为 $ S{S}_{v}I{H}_{1}C{H}_{2}RD $ 的综合数学模型,以阐明 COVID-19 在泰国的流行动态。该模型纳入了主要流行病学参数、疫苗接种率和疾病进展阶段,以评估不同疫苗接种策略在遏制疾病传播方面的效果。我们利用泰国 COVID-19 患者的真实数据进行了参数估计和模型拟合,从而能够模拟疫情情景并探索最佳疫苗接种率。结果表明,优化疫苗接种策略,尤其是每天接种约 119,625 剂疫苗,可将基本繁殖数($ {R}_{0} $)显著降至 1 以下,从而加快疫情控制。模拟结果表明,最佳疫苗接种率可使感染人数大幅减少,预计到 2022 年 6 月 19 日,疫情将在人群中彻底消除。这些发现强调了有针对性的疫苗接种工作和积极主动的公共卫生干预对于缓解 COVID-19 的传播和最大限度地减轻医疗系统负担的重要性。我们的研究为优化疫苗接种策略以控制疫情提供了宝贵的见解,为泰国及其他国家的政策制定者和医疗机构提供了指导。通过利用数学建模技术和真实世界的数据,利益相关者可以制定以证据为基础的战略来对抗 COVID-19 的流行并保障公众健康。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Potential for eliminating COVID-19 in Thailand through third-dose vaccination: A modeling approach.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose significant challenges to global public health, necessitating the development of effective vaccination strategies to mitigate disease transmission. In Thailand, the COVID-19 epidemic has undergone multiple waves, prompting the implementation of various control measures, including vaccination campaigns. Understanding the dynamics of disease transmission and the impact of vaccination strategies is crucial for guiding public health interventions and optimizing epidemic control efforts. In this study, we developed a comprehensive mathematical model, termed $ S{S}_{v}I{H}_{1}C{H}_{2}RD $, to elucidate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Thailand. The model incorporates key epidemiological parameters, vaccination rates, and disease progression stages to assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in curbing disease transmission. Parameter estimation and model fitting were conducted using real-world data from COVID-19 patients in Thailand, enabling the simulation of epidemic scenarios and the exploration of optimal vaccination rates. Our results showed that optimizing vaccination strategies, particularly by administering approximately 119,625 doses per day, can significantly reduce the basic reproduction number ($ {R}_{0} $) below 1, thereby accelerating epidemic control. Simulation results demonstrated that the optimal vaccination rate led to a substantial decrease in the number of infections, with the epidemic projected to be completely eradicated from the population by June 19, 2022. These findings underscore the importance of targeted vaccination efforts and proactive public health interventions in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and minimizing the burden on healthcare systems. Our study provides valuable insights into the optimization of vaccination strategies for epidemic control, offering guidance for policymakers and healthcare authorities in Thailand and beyond. By leveraging mathematical modeling techniques and real-world data, stakeholders can develop evidence-based strategies to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and safeguard public health.

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来源期刊
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 工程技术-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
586
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE) is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal promoting cutting-edge research, technology transfer and knowledge translation about complex data and information processing. MBE publishes Research articles (long and original research); Communications (short and novel research); Expository papers; Technology Transfer and Knowledge Translation reports (description of new technologies and products); Announcements and Industrial Progress and News (announcements and even advertisement, including major conferences).
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