Identifying ecological factors mediating the spread of three invasive mosquito species: citizen science informed prediction

Due to their potential role in pathogen transmission, invasive mosquitoes pose considerable threats to human and animal health. Several studies have identified the most important ecological drivers mediating the establishment and spread of key mosquito species (e.g., Aedes aegypti, and Ae. albopictus), and made predictions for future distribution. We evaluated the effect of an exhaustive list of environmental predictors on the distribution of three invasive species in Hungary (Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus, and Ae. koreicus) by using the same standards for data collection based on citizen science observations. Current distribution maps of these species were generated from a 5-year survey, then were compared with various predictor maps reflecting climate, habitat type, food supply, traffic, and interspecific competition by using a boosted regression trees approach that resulted in a subset of variables with the strongest impact. The best predictor sets were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the focal species for the whole country, and these predictions based on citizen science were evaluated against the results of an independent recent field surveillance. We uncovered species-specific patterns and found that different predictor sets were selected for the three different species, and only predictions for Ae. albopictus could be validated with direct trapping data. Therefore, citizen science informed distribution maps can be used to identify ecological predictors that determine the spread of invasive mosquitoes, and to estimate risk based on the predicted distribution in the case of Ae. albopictus.