Hao Chen, Wenfeng Zhang, Xiangting Huang, Xin Wang
{"title":"估算石油供应中断对中国的动态经济影响:马六甲海峡区块案例研究","authors":"Hao Chen, Wenfeng Zhang, Xiangting Huang, Xin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105376","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensification of geopolitical conflicts necessitates formulating economically effective coping strategies, which requires scientifically understanding the economic losses caused by oil supply disruptions and their evolutionary patterns. However, current assessment results are mostly static and cover direct losses, which are inadequate to fully support the development of disaster prevention measures. Therefore, considering the interdependence across different sectors, we employed a Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model to assess the economic impacts of a 20% disruption in oil imports through the Malacca Strait, lasting for 90 days. The main findings are as follows: (1) 2% of a sector's inoperability caused by oil supply disruption will, on average, be transmitted to other sectors due to their interdependencies. (2) The disruption will result in total economic losses of 62.7 billion yuan for China, and 70% of the total economic losses were incurred within the first 30 days. (3) To cope with the adverse economic impacts of oil transport disruption in the Malacca Strait, the optimal range of China's strategic petroleum reserve is 47.91–169.55 million barrels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 105376"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimating the dynamic economic impacts of oil supply disruptions on China: A case study of Malacca Strait block\",\"authors\":\"Hao Chen, Wenfeng Zhang, Xiangting Huang, Xin Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105376\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The intensification of geopolitical conflicts necessitates formulating economically effective coping strategies, which requires scientifically understanding the economic losses caused by oil supply disruptions and their evolutionary patterns. However, current assessment results are mostly static and cover direct losses, which are inadequate to fully support the development of disaster prevention measures. Therefore, considering the interdependence across different sectors, we employed a Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model to assess the economic impacts of a 20% disruption in oil imports through the Malacca Strait, lasting for 90 days. The main findings are as follows: (1) 2% of a sector's inoperability caused by oil supply disruption will, on average, be transmitted to other sectors due to their interdependencies. (2) The disruption will result in total economic losses of 62.7 billion yuan for China, and 70% of the total economic losses were incurred within the first 30 days. (3) To cope with the adverse economic impacts of oil transport disruption in the Malacca Strait, the optimal range of China's strategic petroleum reserve is 47.91–169.55 million barrels.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20970,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Resources Policy\",\"volume\":\"98 \",\"pages\":\"Article 105376\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":10.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Resources Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420724007438\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"0\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Resources Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420724007438","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"0","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimating the dynamic economic impacts of oil supply disruptions on China: A case study of Malacca Strait block
The intensification of geopolitical conflicts necessitates formulating economically effective coping strategies, which requires scientifically understanding the economic losses caused by oil supply disruptions and their evolutionary patterns. However, current assessment results are mostly static and cover direct losses, which are inadequate to fully support the development of disaster prevention measures. Therefore, considering the interdependence across different sectors, we employed a Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model to assess the economic impacts of a 20% disruption in oil imports through the Malacca Strait, lasting for 90 days. The main findings are as follows: (1) 2% of a sector's inoperability caused by oil supply disruption will, on average, be transmitted to other sectors due to their interdependencies. (2) The disruption will result in total economic losses of 62.7 billion yuan for China, and 70% of the total economic losses were incurred within the first 30 days. (3) To cope with the adverse economic impacts of oil transport disruption in the Malacca Strait, the optimal range of China's strategic petroleum reserve is 47.91–169.55 million barrels.
期刊介绍:
Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.