国际贸易中的三角不平等：被忽视的层面

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018

Reto Foellmi , Christian Hepenstrick , David Torun

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引用次数: 0

摘要

估算贸易成本是了解贸易自由化的福利效应的关键。成本最小化意味着国际贸易成本的三角不等式（TI）在任何三个国家都必须成立，以避免跨境套利。我们的研究表明，当贸易成本发生变化时，可能会出现重新选择贸易路线的机会，因为通过中间商运输成本会更低。贸易指数捕捉到了这种重新选择路线的机会。然而，计算贸易自由化收益的标准方法忽略了这一无套利条件。我们概述了一种既符合模型又尊重贸易指数的估算方法。反事实演练表明，贸易自由化后重新规划路线所带来的福利收益可能非常可观。

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Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension

Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade liberalizations ignore this no-arbitrage condition. We outline an estimation routine that is model-consistent and respects the TI. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the welfare gains from re-routing after trade liberalizations can be substantial.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.