Kailin Liu , Zhimeng Xu , Xin Liu , Bangqin Huang , Hongbin Liu , Bingzhang Chen
{"title":"利用机器学习模拟全球中层浮游生物生物量","authors":"Kailin Liu , Zhimeng Xu , Xin Liu , Bangqin Huang , Hongbin Liu , Bingzhang Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103371","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mesozooplankton are a crucial link between primary producers and higher trophic levels and play a vital role in marine food webs, biological carbon pumps, and sustaining fishery resources. However, the global distribution of mesozooplankton biomass and the relevant controlling mechanisms remain elusive. We compared four machine learning algorithms (Boosted Regression Trees, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine) to model the spatiotemporal distributions of global mesozooplankton biomass. These algorithms were trained on a compiled dataset of published mesozooplankton biomass observations with corresponding environmental predictors from contemporaneous satellite observations (temperature, chlorophyll, salinity, and mixed layer depth). We found that Random Forest achieved the best predictive accuracy with <em>R<sup>2</sup></em> and <em>RMSE</em> (Root Mean Standard Error) of 0.57 and 0.39, respectively. Also, the global distribution of mesozooplankton biomass predicted by the Random Forest model was more consistent with the observational data than other models. We used the Random Forest model to create a global map of mesozooplankton biomass which serves as a reference for validating process-based ecosystem models. The model outputs confirm that environmental factors, especially surface Chl <em>a</em>, a proxy for prey availability, significantly correlate with the spatiotemporal distribution of mesozooplankton biomass. The scaling relationship between the mesozooplankton biomass and Chl <em>a</em> can be used as an emergent constraint for model validation and development. Moreover, our model predicts that the global total mesozooplankton biomass will decrease by 3% by the end of this century under the “business-as-usual” scenarios, potentially reducing fishery production and carbon sequestration. Our study contributes to predicting global mesozooplankton biomass and provides deep insights into the underlying environmental impacts on the distribution of mesozooplankton biomass.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 103371"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modelling global mesozooplankton biomass using machine learning\",\"authors\":\"Kailin Liu , Zhimeng Xu , Xin Liu , Bangqin Huang , Hongbin Liu , Bingzhang Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103371\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Mesozooplankton are a crucial link between primary producers and higher trophic levels and play a vital role in marine food webs, biological carbon pumps, and sustaining fishery resources. However, the global distribution of mesozooplankton biomass and the relevant controlling mechanisms remain elusive. We compared four machine learning algorithms (Boosted Regression Trees, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine) to model the spatiotemporal distributions of global mesozooplankton biomass. These algorithms were trained on a compiled dataset of published mesozooplankton biomass observations with corresponding environmental predictors from contemporaneous satellite observations (temperature, chlorophyll, salinity, and mixed layer depth). We found that Random Forest achieved the best predictive accuracy with <em>R<sup>2</sup></em> and <em>RMSE</em> (Root Mean Standard Error) of 0.57 and 0.39, respectively. Also, the global distribution of mesozooplankton biomass predicted by the Random Forest model was more consistent with the observational data than other models. We used the Random Forest model to create a global map of mesozooplankton biomass which serves as a reference for validating process-based ecosystem models. The model outputs confirm that environmental factors, especially surface Chl <em>a</em>, a proxy for prey availability, significantly correlate with the spatiotemporal distribution of mesozooplankton biomass. The scaling relationship between the mesozooplankton biomass and Chl <em>a</em> can be used as an emergent constraint for model validation and development. Moreover, our model predicts that the global total mesozooplankton biomass will decrease by 3% by the end of this century under the “business-as-usual” scenarios, potentially reducing fishery production and carbon sequestration. Our study contributes to predicting global mesozooplankton biomass and provides deep insights into the underlying environmental impacts on the distribution of mesozooplankton biomass.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20620,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Progress in Oceanography\",\"volume\":\"229 \",\"pages\":\"Article 103371\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Progress in Oceanography\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001770\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"OCEANOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Progress in Oceanography","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661124001770","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"OCEANOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modelling global mesozooplankton biomass using machine learning
Mesozooplankton are a crucial link between primary producers and higher trophic levels and play a vital role in marine food webs, biological carbon pumps, and sustaining fishery resources. However, the global distribution of mesozooplankton biomass and the relevant controlling mechanisms remain elusive. We compared four machine learning algorithms (Boosted Regression Trees, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine) to model the spatiotemporal distributions of global mesozooplankton biomass. These algorithms were trained on a compiled dataset of published mesozooplankton biomass observations with corresponding environmental predictors from contemporaneous satellite observations (temperature, chlorophyll, salinity, and mixed layer depth). We found that Random Forest achieved the best predictive accuracy with R2 and RMSE (Root Mean Standard Error) of 0.57 and 0.39, respectively. Also, the global distribution of mesozooplankton biomass predicted by the Random Forest model was more consistent with the observational data than other models. We used the Random Forest model to create a global map of mesozooplankton biomass which serves as a reference for validating process-based ecosystem models. The model outputs confirm that environmental factors, especially surface Chl a, a proxy for prey availability, significantly correlate with the spatiotemporal distribution of mesozooplankton biomass. The scaling relationship between the mesozooplankton biomass and Chl a can be used as an emergent constraint for model validation and development. Moreover, our model predicts that the global total mesozooplankton biomass will decrease by 3% by the end of this century under the “business-as-usual” scenarios, potentially reducing fishery production and carbon sequestration. Our study contributes to predicting global mesozooplankton biomass and provides deep insights into the underlying environmental impacts on the distribution of mesozooplankton biomass.
期刊介绍:
Progress in Oceanography publishes the longer, more comprehensive papers that most oceanographers feel are necessary, on occasion, to do justice to their work. Contributions are generally either a review of an aspect of oceanography or a treatise on an expanding oceanographic subject. The articles cover the entire spectrum of disciplines within the science of oceanography. Occasionally volumes are devoted to collections of papers and conference proceedings of exceptional interest. Essential reading for all oceanographers.