1990年至2019年因运动量低导致的2型糖尿病时空趋势及2050年患病率预测：2019年全球疾病负担研究

IF 4.3 3区医学 Q1 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY

Journal of Nutrition Health & Aging Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI:10.1016/j.jnha.2024.100402

Shujin Fan , Jin Xu , Jinli Wu , Li Yan , Meng Ren

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景2型糖尿病（T2DM）对全球健康造成了重大负担，但有关低体力活动（LPA）影响的流行病学研究却十分有限。本研究探讨了低体力活动对 T2DM 的全球影响。方法通过分析 2019 年全球疾病负担数据库（GBD），我们探讨了 1990 年至 2019 年期间低体力活动导致的 T2DM 死亡人数和残疾调整生命年（DALYs），并按年份、性别、国家和 SDI 地区进行了分层。估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）评估了趋势，贝叶斯模型预测了未来模式。结果2019年，LPA占T2DM死亡人数的8.5%，占DALYs的6.9%，自1990年以来明显上升。在全球范围内，年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和残疾调整生命年率（ASDR）均有所上升，尤其是在社会人口指数（SDI）较低的地区。社会人口指数（SDI）高和中高的地区，ASMR 有所下降，而所有地区的残疾调整寿命年率（ASDR）普遍呈上升趋势。对 2050 年的预测表明，ASMR 将下降，但 ASDR 将上升，这表明尽管死亡率有可能降低，但 T2DM 的负担仍将持续。促进体育锻炼对减轻这一负担至关重要，尤其是在该疾病影响最严重的地区。

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Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM.

Methods

Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns.

Results

In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions.

Conclusion

LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe.

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来源期刊

Journal of Nutrition Health & Aging 医学-老年医学

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

3.40%

发文量

136

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： There is increasing scientific and clinical interest in the interactions of nutrition and health as part of the aging process. This interest is due to the important role that nutrition plays throughout the life span. This role affects the growth and development of the body during childhood, affects the risk of acute and chronic diseases, the maintenance of physiological processes and the biological process of aging. A major aim of "The Journal of Nutrition, Health & Aging" is to contribute to the improvement of knowledge regarding the relationships between nutrition and the aging process from birth to old age.