中国影子银行监管对银行贷款的影响--基于文本分析和机器学习的实证分析

IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Sha Sun , Gong Qian , Jingjing Yu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,中国金融监管部门加强了对影子银行的监管,其影响引起了学术界和政策制定者的关注。我们利用文本分析和机器学习方法编制了中国影子银行监管强度变化指数,并探讨了监管对银行贷款的影响。利用固定效应模型和 2007-2020 年中国 177 家商业银行的数据集,我们发现影子银行监管的加强导致银行贷款规模萎缩和贷款增速下降。机制分析表明,银行在面临监管加强时产生的资产重新配置动机和逐利动机导致银行贷款下降。信贷紧缩效应主要存在于股份制银行、城市商业银行和农村商业银行,而在国有银行中并不显著。资本充足、存款充裕和贷款发放效率高可以缓和这种效应。加强监管也会影响贷款构成,增加公司贷款比例,减少抵押贷款。我们的研究结果对监管机构和银行都有新的启示,而且经多次检验都是稳健的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The impacts of China's shadow banking regulation on bank lending—An empirical analysis based on textual analysis and machine learning
China's financial regulatory authority has strengthened shadow banking regulation in recent years, the impact of which has attracted the attention of academics and policymakers. We develop China's shadow banking regulation intensity change index using textual analysis and machine learning methods and explore the impacts of the regulation on bank lending. Using a fixed effect model and a dataset of 177 commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2020, we find that strengthened shadow banking regulation results in shrinkage in bank loan scale and lower loan growth. Mechanism analysis reveals that the asset-reallocation motives and profit-seeking motives generated by banks faced with strengthening regulation lead to a decline in bank lending. The credit tightening effect mainly exists in joint-stock, city, and rural commercial banks while insignificant in state-owned banks. This effect can be moderated by ample capital, abundant deposits, and high loan issuance efficiency. Strengthened regulation also affects loan composition, with an increase in the proportion of corporate lending and a decrease in mortgage lending. Our results have novel implications for both regulators and banks and are robust to several tests.
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来源期刊
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal BUSINESS, FINANCE-
CiteScore
6.80
自引率
6.50%
发文量
157
期刊介绍: The Pacific-Basin Finance Journal is aimed at providing a specialized forum for the publication of academic research on capital markets of the Asia-Pacific countries. Primary emphasis will be placed on the highest quality empirical and theoretical research in the following areas: • Market Micro-structure; • Investment and Portfolio Management; • Theories of Market Equilibrium; • Valuation of Financial and Real Assets; • Behavior of Asset Prices in Financial Sectors; • Normative Theory of Financial Management; • Capital Markets of Development; • Market Mechanisms.
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