A holistic approach to assessing reliability in green hydrogen supply chains using mixed methods

Estimating the reliability of future energy supply chains is a vital yet complex task driven by environmental and energy security concerns in the context of the ongoing energy transition. This transition necessitates the integration of new technologies and systems into interconnected networks or supply chains. In this context, hydrogen plays a crucial role in the transition to green energy, as it is anticipated a surge in the establishment of “green” hydrogen supply chains (HSC), necessitating the assurance of reliability in meeting international roadmap targets. Technological reliability is typically evaluated by applying quantitative methods to current technologies. For future HSCs, the reliability assessment challenge is related to their prospective nature, with additional uncertainty due to the technologies' interdependencies. When stakeholders rely solely on technology readiness levels, essential aspects of the supply chain are not considered. This work introduces a novel methodology to assess the technological and organizational reliability of future HSCs, contributing to the literature on hydrogen reliability and strategic foresight. It also offers macro-level reliability projections for green HSCs by 2030, integrating input from energy experts and providing valuable insights for the scientific community, academia, and professionals. The proposed methodology's novelty lies in its ability to integrate various nodes of prospective HSCs. The study employs mixed methods, incorporating quantitative (multi-attribute utility theory) and qualitative approaches (horizon scanning). Variables such as capacity, flexibility, infrastructure vulnerability, and consequences of disruption are considered to quantify reliability, with twenty-four metrics included. Data collection employs the perspective of 2030 through a participatory study based on surveys and interviews, drawing insights from twenty-nine international experts associated with various HSCs-related technologies. The methodology is applied to a case study for a green HSC involving solar/wind energy, electrolysis, transportation, storage, and refueling stations. This paper presents the quantitative results, projecting moderate reliability for green HSCs by 2030. Solar HSCs have been considered slightly more reliable than wind HSCs. The interdependence of electrolysis technology and several aspects related to hydrogen transportation are perceived as vital risks affecting the reliability of green HSCs. Having a constant hydrogen supply is seen as a more significant challenge than HSC's response to unexpected interruptions. The research found specific disparities in expert opinions that enriched the data collection process with complementary viewpoints, benefiting from the former's heterogeneous profiles.