为干旱管理重建和预测泉水排放的简易模型:意大利中部案例研究的启示

IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究地区卡斯特泉位于意大利中部亚平宁山脊,台伯河流域。 研究重点由于干旱和缺水事件日益增多,因此对供水系统中的水供应情况进行评估是一个关键问题。分析和预测地下水资源的动态行为对概念化和模型化而言具有挑战性,尤其是在监测不足的系统中。本文提出了一个基于月度春季排泄量时间序列与标准化降水指数之间线性回归的简易模型。针对长期监测泉水开发的模型被用于重建历史地下水水文图,并利用 "相似性原则 "对具有相似属性的监测不足的泉水进行预测。结果凸显了这种方法的显著性能,是克服泉水排放监测网络局限性的有用工具。此外,该工具还用于测试预测性能,使水资源管理者能够开发月度预警系统,促进水资源的可持续开发,限制供水系统的关键问题,尤其是在干旱时期。从受托管理研究地区水资源的水务公司的角度对结果进行了讨论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A parsimonious model for springs discharge reconstruction and forecast for drought management: Lessons from a case study in Central Italy

Study region

Karst springs located in Central Apennine ridge (Central Italy), in the Tiber River basin.

Study focus

The assessment of water availability is a key issue in a water supply system because of increasing drought and water scarcity events. Analysing and predicting the dynamic behaviour of groundwater resources is challenging to conceptualize and model, especially in poorly-monitored systems. A parsimonious model based on linear regression between the monthly spring discharge time series and Standardized Precipitation Index is proposed. The model is conceived for management purposes and suitable for users with a limited background in modelling techniques, who can take advantage from an initial knowledge of the aquifers hydrological regime.

New hydrological insights for the region

The model developed for long-term monitored springs is used to reconstruct the historical groundwater hydrographs and to make predictions for poorly-monitored springs with similar properties, exploiting the “similarity principle”. Results highlight the notable performance of this approach, which represents a useful tool for overcoming the limitations in spring discharge monitoring networks. Moreover, the tool is used to test forecast performance enabling water managers to develop a monthly early-warning system fostering a sustainable water resource exploitation and limiting the critical issues of the water supply system, especially during drought periods. Results are discussed from the perspective of the water utilities entrusted to manage their resources in the study region.
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
6.70
自引率
8.50%
发文量
284
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.
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