利用基于马科维茨均值-方差理论的修正购电协议框架实现城市规模的电力去碳化

IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY
Haolin Yang , Weijun Gao , Siqi Xu , You Li , Xindong Wei , Yafei Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市电力去碳化对于应对气候变化至关重要,但目前的研究往往忽视了投资者面临的财务风险以及自由化电力市场中消费者不断变化的需求。本研究针对这些不足,提出了改进的马科维茨均值-方差组合(MVP)理论,并与低排放分析平台(LEAP)和深度学习模型相结合。在此基础上,提出并开发了以购电协议(PPA)为中心的城市能源转型框架。通过对日本北九州市的案例研究,对该框架进行了验证,强调了该框架在加速电力行业去碳化和到 2038 年实现净零排放方面的潜力。此外,其他七个城市的内部收益率 (IRR) 稳定在 14.5% 到 19.6% 之间。虽然该框架降低了长期现金流的波动性,但其有效性取决于工业电气化效率和地区能源自给率。研究结果表明,仅仅依靠可再生能源实现低碳转型是不现实的。此外,绿色氢气可能成为化石燃料的可行替代品,有可能取代电池进行长期能源储存。未来的研究应探索跨区域能源贸易,并建立长期能源交易的法律框架,以加强城市能源转型在不同地理和经济背景下的适应能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Urban-scale power decarbonization using a modified power purchase agreements framework based on Markowitz mean-variance theory

Urban-scale power decarbonization using a modified power purchase agreements framework based on Markowitz mean-variance theory
Urban power decarbonization is essential in the fight against climate change, yet current research often neglects the financial risks faced by investors and the shifting demands of consumers in liberalized electricity markets. This study addresses these gaps by proposing a modified Markowitz Mean-Variance Portfolio (MVP) theory, integrated with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), and a deep learning model. On this basis, an urban energy transition framework centered on Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) is proposed and developed. The framework is validated considering a case study in Kitakyushu, Japan, highlighting its potential in accelerating power sector decarbonization and achieving net-zero emissions by 2038. Additionally, the internal rate of return (IRR) remains stable between 14.5 % and 19.6 % across seven other cities. While the framework reduces long-term cash flow volatility, its effectiveness hinges on industrial electrification efficiency and regional energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that relying solely on renewable energy for low-carbon transitions is unrealistic. Furthermore, green hydrogen could emerge as a viable alternative to fossil fuels, potentially replacing batteries for long-term energy storage. Future research should explore cross-regional energy trade and establish legal frameworks for long-term energy transactions to bolster urban energy transition resilience across diverse geographic and economic contexts.
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来源期刊
Sustainable Cities and Society
Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
22.00
自引率
13.70%
发文量
810
审稿时长
27 days
期刊介绍: Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;
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