气候变化下城市群土地利用和碳储存的空间优化预测：CMIP6 的不同情景和多尺度视角

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105920

Hao Wu , Yi Yang , Wen Li

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引用次数: 0

摘要

优化土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）结构可有效增加碳储存/碳固存（CS），有助于实现碳中和目标1。研究气候变化条件下 LULC 和 CS 的空间分布对实现可持续发展目标非常重要。本研究基于不同的气候变化模型，考虑经济、水、碳和生态可持续性的协调发展，建立了多尺度、多情景、多目标的 LULC 综合优化模型。然后，对不同的气候变化情景进行了优化，并预测了区域 CS 值。LULC 模拟模型在不同尺度上都取得了令人满意的模拟结果。值得注意的是，平均精度超过了 0.92。优化后的土地扩展结果呈现出异质性。林地变化在 LULC 总变化中所占比例最大。优化后，不同方案下的 CS 值相近。研究区域的西北部是主要的碳汇区。本研究旨在通过合理规划 LULC 结构来应对未来复杂的气候变化，从而实现城市群的可持续发展。

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Spatial optimization of land use and carbon storage prediction in urban agglomerations under climate change: Different scenarios and multiscale perspectives of CMIP6

Land use/land cover (LULC) structure optimization can effectively increase carbon storage/carbon sequestration (CS) and help realize carbon neutrality goals¹. Studying the spatial distributions of LULC and CS under climate change conditions is highly important for realizing sustainable development goals. This study is based on different climate change models, and the coordinated development of economic, water, carbon and ecological sustainability was considered to establish a comprehensive multiscale, multiscenario and multiobjective LULC optimization model. Then, different climate change scenarios were optimized, and regional CS values were predicted. The LULC simulation model provided satisfactory simulation results at different scales. Notably, the average accuracy exceeded 0.92. The optimized land expansion results exhibited heterogeneity. Forestland change accounted for the largest proportion of the total LULC change. After optimization, the CS values under the different scenarios were similar. The northwestern part of the study area served as the main carbon sink area. The aim of this study was to respond to future complex climate change by rationally planning the LULC structure, thus achieving the sustainable development of urban agglomerations.

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;