Bridging the education gap: A comprehensive analysis of travel distance and education quality based spatial accessibility of early childhood education in Metropolitan Melbourne

In Australia, Melbourne's population is growing rapidly and will soon overtake Sydney, fuelled by a COVID-19 baby boom that has increased demand for early childhood education (ECE). In response, the Victorian Government has announced transformational reforms to improve the accessibility and quality of ECE for the growing urban population. This study aims to addresses the evolution and effectiveness of ECE reforms in Melbourne from 2021 to 2036 by proposing an innovative approach that integrates spatial accessibility and educational quality into ECE evaluations. Using the distance decay function, the Floating Catchment Area (FCA) method and the Huff model, it extends traditional geographical analyses by highlighting the importance of educational quality in parental choice and providing a refined technique for simulating local demand based on educational quality and travel distance. Overall, inequalities in educational resources have been identified, with a concentration of ECE services near the CBD, despite high population density, while peripheral areas have significant service deficits. Furthermore, the projected poor accessibility scores for 2026, 2031 and 2036 highlight the urgent need for educational infrastructure development, even in areas rated as having better accessibility in 2021.