Investment and crime on residential street segments: Assessing the moderating role of neighborhood characteristics

Research suggests that investment in the form of structural home repairs, new construction, and home renovation is associated with crime reductions in residential areas. The current study examines how the relationship between investment and crime on residential street segments is moderated by neighborhood characteristics using longitudinal data from six large U.S. cities to better understand how investment strategies can be targeted to maximize public safety benefits. We estimate spatial Durbin models with street segment and census tract by year fixed effects to examine the effects of one measure of direct investment, building permits, on changes in crime at street segments and the extent to which such effects vary by census tract-level concentrated disadvantage, residential stability, median housing values, percent non-White, percent foreign-born, and population density. Findings reveal a significant negative relationship between permit activity and changes in crime in all cities. With few exceptions, effects were strongest among segments in the densest neighborhoods with the highest percentage of foreign-born residents where concentrated disadvantage is high and residential stability and median home values are low. The moderating influence of the racial and ethnic residential population varied across cities. We discuss implications, including avoiding unintended consequences associated with investment.