东南亚会成为下一个全球制造业中心吗？多向协整、因果关系和动态关联分析

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI:10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101217

Haibo Wang , Lutfu S. Sua , Jun Huang , Jaime Ortiz , Bahram Alidaee

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出了一个新颖的框架来研究东南亚经济增长驱动因素之间的关系，该地区有望成为重要的制造业目的地。然而，各国经济增长的不平衡给考虑离岸外包决策的跨国公司带来了风险。我们的两阶段框架采用多向协整分析和向量误差修正模型（VECM）来研究经济增长的关键驱动因素。我们运用 QVAR 模型来评估离岸外包决策的动态关联性和溢出效应。利用世界银行的数据，我们的研究结果表明，东南亚国家通过具有多向协整性和动态关联性的复杂关系相互关联，为循证政策提供了信息。

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Will Southeast Asia be the next global manufacturing hub? A multiway cointegration, causality, and dynamic connectedness analyses

We propose a novel framework to examine relationships among drivers of economic growth in Southeast Asia, a region poised to become a significant manufacturing destination. However, unbalanced economic growth among countries poses risks to multinational companies considering offshoring decisions. Our two-stage framework uses multi-way cointegration analysis and a vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate critical drivers of economic growth. We apply a QVAR model to evaluate dynamic connectedness and spillover effects of offshoring decisions. Using World Bank data, our results show that Southeast Asian countries are interconnected through complex relationships featuring multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness, informing evidence-based policy.

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来源期刊

Emerging Markets Review Multiple-

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

4.20%

发文量

审稿时长

100 days

期刊介绍： The intent of the editors is to consolidate Emerging Markets Review as the premier vehicle for publishing high impact empirical and theoretical studies in emerging markets finance. Preference will be given to comparative studies that take global and regional perspectives, detailed single country studies that address critical policy issues and have significant global and regional implications, and papers that address the interactions of national and international financial architecture. We especially welcome papers that take institutional as well as financial perspectives.