Multimodal transport route selection: An integrated fuzzy hierarchy risk assessment and multiple criteria decision-making approach

Selecting multimodal transport routes is a complex problem due to the presence of various, often conflicting decision-making attributes, such as transportation cost and time, diverse risks with hierarchical relationships both within and across groups, decision-makers’ preferences, and numerous possible options. To address this problem, a novel decision-making approach is proposed, integrating the best-worst method (BWM), fuzzy hierarchy risk assessment (FHRA), and additive ratio assessment (ARAS). This approach decomposes the route decision-making problem into a hierarchy structure and determines the optimal solution through three distinct phases. In the first phase, BWM assigns relative weights to various criteria within the hierarchical structure, ensuring that the decision-makers’ preferences are accurately reflected. In the second phase, FHRA evaluates qualitative risks from the lowest to the highest hierarchy levels. This process involves calculating risk magnitudes at the lowest hierarchy level and progressively recalculating them as they ascend to the highest level of the hierarchy. The multimodal transport cost-model provides transportation cost and time. In the final phase, ARAS synthesizes all the decision-making data to rank all possible multimodal alternative routes based on utility scores. The realistic case study validates the practical applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The findings indicated that the proposed methodology effectively identify the most appropriate multimodal transport route as the best compromise choice. This study contributes new knowledge regarding a new hybrid decision-making framework that combines multiple criteria decision-making methods with fuzzy hierarchy risk analysis, thereby enhancing the design of transportation plans to align with organizational goals and customer requirements.