基于游戏的多船协同避碰决策方法,反映开放水域的风险态度

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了准确反映多船相遇时对船舶意图的风险态度,本文开发了一种新颖的两阶段协同避碰决策(CADM)模型,将意图预测和实时决策结合在一起。我们通过分析自动识别系统(AIS)数据获取风险态度的先验知识,并利用贝叶斯推理进一步估计相遇船舶风险态度的概率分布。通过将避碰程序视为具有不完全信息的静态博弈,并考虑到风险态度概率,建立了避碰意图预测模型。然后根据不同阶段实施实时决策,并通过博弈-决策循环建立协同 CADM 模型。最后,模拟了所有风险态度组合下的多船相遇情景,并将结果与完整信息下的结果进行了比较。结果表明,所提出的模型能够在所有风险态度组合下制定符合安全要求的避让行动。与完整信息的进一步比较证明了风险态度概率模型的有效性,有利于提高决策灵活性和降低复杂性。研究成果增强了协同决策能力,有助于开放水域自主导航的发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A game-based decision-making method for multi-ship collaborative collision avoidance reflecting risk attitudes in open waters
To accurately reflect risk attitudes towards ship intentions in multi-ship encounters, this paper develops a novel two-stage collaborative collision avoidance decision-making (CADM) model by incorporating intention prediction and real-time decision-making. We acquire prior knowledge of risk attitudes by analyzing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and further estimate the probability distributions of encountering ship's risk attitude using Bayesian reasoning. By treating collision avoidance procedure as a static game with incomplete information, a predictive model for collision avoidance intentions is developed by taking account into risk attitude probabilities. Real-time decisions are then implemented according to different stages, and a collaborative CADM model is established by a game-decision cycle. Finally, a multi-ship encounter scenario is simulated under all combinations of risk attitudes, and the results are compared with those obtained under complete information. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can formulate avoidance actions that meet safety requirements under all combinations of risk attitudes. Further comparison with complete information proves the effectiveness of the risk attitude probability model, which is conducive to improving the decision-making flexibility and reducing complexity. The research findings enhance the collaborative decision-making, contributing to the development of autonomous navigation in open waters.
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来源期刊
Ocean & Coastal Management
Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
15.20%
发文量
321
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.
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