海上作业中语言和通信诱发事故的模糊贝叶斯定量风险评估

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY
Jingbo Yin , Rafi Ullah Khan , Muhammad Afzaal , R. Nawaz , Xiao Shanshan , Arshad Jamal
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引用次数: 0

摘要

语言和沟通问题给海上安全带来了巨大风险。在海上运输中,语言行为和闭环沟通的有效性容易受到各种因素的影响。然而,量化这些因素对语言和沟通引发的事故风险的影响的文献却很少。为此,本研究对语言和沟通问题引发的海运事故进行了整体量化风险评估。评估方法包括利用专家判断、过往文献和事故报告来确定致因因素,并采用模糊贝叶斯方法进行风险分析。通过双向传播推理分析,确定各种情况下考虑因素的影响。缺乏语言能力和违反沟通角色和规定被确定为突出的事故致因因素。同时进行了证据设定分析,以确定致因因素的多米诺效应。进行了敏感性分析,以揭示导致语言和沟通问题诱发事故风险的最关键因素。本研究揭示了海事安全中语言相关风险的微妙动态。研究结果可用于提出有效沟通的指导方针和政策,从而提高海上作业的安全性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A fuzzy bayesian quantitative risk assessment for language and communication induced accidents in maritime operations
Language and communication issues pose a formidable risk to maritime safety. In maritime transportation, the effectiveness of speech acts and closed-loop communication is vulnerable to a wide array of factors. However, literature quantifying the impact of these factors on language and communication-induced accident risk is scarce. To that end, this study conducts a holistic quantitative risk assessment for the language and communication issues induced accidents in maritime transportation. The methodology consists of employing expert judgments, past literature, and accident reports to identify causation factors and a Fuzzy Bayesian approach to risk analysis. Bidirectionally propagated inferential analysis was conducted to determine the impact of factors under consideration in various scenarios. Lack of language proficiency and violations of the roles and regulations of communication were identified as prominent accident causation factors. Simultaneous evidence-setting analysis was conducted to determine the domino effect of the causation factors. A sensitivity analysis was performed to reveal the most critical factors causing language and communication issues induced accident risk. This study unravels the nuanced dynamics of language-related risk in maritime safety. The findings of this study can be used to propose guidelines and policies for effective communication and hence safer maritime operations.
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来源期刊
Ocean & Coastal Management
Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
15.20%
发文量
321
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.
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