Dental age estimation in adults using the Lamendin criteria: Validation of a bayesian model in the Brazilian population

Age estimation provides information for biological profile, which is used as an important data during the process of to aid in the identification of bodies of deceased persons. Lamendin et al. proposed a simplified dental age estimation technique for adults based on the analysis of periodontal recession height, root height, and root translucency height. These characteristics were used to build a multi-population database that served in the development of a Bayesian model, known as the Forensic International Dental Database (FIDB). However, before this research, this model did not incorporate dental information from the Brazilian population. The aim of this article was to validate the application of the FIDB Bayesian statistical model for estimating dental age in samples from the Brazilian population and compare it to Lamendin's technique. A cross-sectional study was conducted using 230 dental elements extracted for therapeutic reasons and stored in a biobank. Two independent and calibrated examiners collected the data, considering the randomization of dental samples. Intra- and inter-examiner reliability analysis included the re-evaluation of 20 % (n = 40) of the sample. For statistical analyses, the data were organized in Microsoft© Excel© 365 version 2204 (Microsoft Corp., Redmond, WA, USA) spreadsheets, and R version 4.0.2 (R Foundation, Vienna, Austria) and IBM® SPSS® version 23.0 (SPSS Inc., IBM, Chicago, IL, USA) software were used. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, the final sample comprised 200 intact dental elements from 84 male and 116 female individuals. According to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the data did not show a normal distribution, and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient indicated that intra- and inter-examiner agreements were adequate. Through the Mann-Whitney U test, statistically significant differences between sexes were not observed. In terms of overall accuracy, the Bayesian model and the original Lamendin´s technique showed a mean absolute error of 9.39 years and 9.95, respectively. Regarding bias, it was generally 0.15 years for the Bayesian model and 5.62 years for the original Lamendin´s technique. The Wilcoxon classification test revealed no statistically significant difference between chronological and estimated ages, but only for the Bayesian model. It can be concluded that the developed Bayesian statistical model was able to estimate the age of Brazilian adults satisfactorily, and overall, the error rates were acceptable.