Conceptual model for assessing a science-policy-management framework for threat mitigation.

Fire regimes are changing globally, leading to an increased need for management interventions to protect human lives and interests, potentially conflicting with biodiversity conservation. We conceptualized 5 major aspects of the process required to address threats to flora and used this conceptual model to examine and identify areas for improvement. We focused on threat identification, policy design, and action implementation. We illustrated the application of the conceptual model through a case study in southeastern Australia, where policies have been designed to prevent hazard reduction burns from exposing threatened flora to high-frequency fire (HFF). We examined whether threatened species have been accurately identified as threatened by HFF, species were accounted for in key policies, and implementation of the policy reduced the incidence of HFF for target species. Species were mostly identified accurately as being threatened by HFF, and, broadly, the policy effectively minimized the threat from HFF. However, 96 species did not have HFF identified as a threat, and another 36 were missing from the policy entirely. Outcomes regarding the reduction of threat from HFF since policy introduction were species specific, despite an average increase in fire interval of 2 years. Despite the policy, over half (55%) the species studied have been affected by HFF since the policy was introduced. Although relatively minor improvements could optimize threat identification and policy design, the mixed success of action implementation highlights limitations that warrant further investigation. Our conceptual model enabled us to make clear and targeted recommendations for how different aspects of the policy could be improved and where further work is needed. We propose the conceptual model can be useful in a variety of contexts.