{"title":"山区河流极端水温的趋势和驱动因素","authors":"A. van Hamel, M. I. Brunner","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037518","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Water temperature extremes can pose serious threats to the aquatic ecosystems of mountain rivers. These rivers are influenced by snow and glaciermelt, which change with climate. As a result, the frequency and severity of water temperature extremes may change. While previous studies have documented changes in non-extreme water temperature, it is yet unclear how extreme water temperatures change in a warming climate and how their hydro-meteorological drivers differ from those of non-extremes. This study aims to assess temporal changes and spatial variability in water temperature extremes and enhance our understanding of the driving processes across European mountain rivers in the current climate, at both a regional and continental scale. First, we describe the characteristics of extreme events and explore their relationships with catchment characteristics. Second, we assess trends in water temperature extremes and compare them with trends in mean water temperature. Third, we use random forest models to identify the main driving processes of water temperature extremes. Last, we conduct a co-occurrence analysis to examine the relationship between water temperature extremes and hydro-climatic extremes. Our results show that mean water temperature has increased by <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/a76f04a9-fce2-4883-8d7d-678591ad407b/wrcr27521-math-0001.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"27\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27521-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"4,3\" data-semantic-content=\"2\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"addition\" data-semantic-speech=\"plus 0.38 plus or minus 0.14\" data-semantic-type=\"infixop\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"1\" data-semantic-content=\"0\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"5\" data-semantic-role=\"positive\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,+\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"addition\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 0.056em;\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"float\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"infixop,±\" data-semantic-parent=\"5\" data-semantic-role=\"addition\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"4\" space=\"4\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"5\" data-semantic-role=\"float\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27521:wrcr27521-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27521-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"4,3\" data-semantic-content=\"2\" data-semantic-role=\"addition\" data-semantic-speech=\"plus 0.38 plus or minus 0.14\" data-semantic-type=\"infixop\"><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"1\" data-semantic-content=\"0\" data-semantic-parent=\"5\" data-semantic-role=\"positive\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\"><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,+\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"addition\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">+</mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"float\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">0.38</mn></mrow><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"infixop,±\" data-semantic-parent=\"5\" data-semantic-role=\"addition\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">±</mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"5\" data-semantic-role=\"float\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">0.14</mn></mrow>${+}0.38\\pm 0.14$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>°C per decade, leading to more extreme events at high elevations in spring and summer. While non-extreme water temperatures are mainly driven by air temperature, water temperature extremes are also importantly influenced by soil moisture, baseflow, and meltwater. Our study highlights the complexity of water temperature dynamics in mountain rivers at the regional and continental scale, especially during water temperature extremes.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends and Drivers of Water Temperature Extremes in Mountain Rivers\",\"authors\":\"A. van Hamel, M. I. Brunner\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2024wr037518\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Water temperature extremes can pose serious threats to the aquatic ecosystems of mountain rivers. These rivers are influenced by snow and glaciermelt, which change with climate. As a result, the frequency and severity of water temperature extremes may change. While previous studies have documented changes in non-extreme water temperature, it is yet unclear how extreme water temperatures change in a warming climate and how their hydro-meteorological drivers differ from those of non-extremes. This study aims to assess temporal changes and spatial variability in water temperature extremes and enhance our understanding of the driving processes across European mountain rivers in the current climate, at both a regional and continental scale. First, we describe the characteristics of extreme events and explore their relationships with catchment characteristics. Second, we assess trends in water temperature extremes and compare them with trends in mean water temperature. Third, we use random forest models to identify the main driving processes of water temperature extremes. Last, we conduct a co-occurrence analysis to examine the relationship between water temperature extremes and hydro-climatic extremes. Our results show that mean water temperature has increased by <span data-altimg=\\\"/cms/asset/a76f04a9-fce2-4883-8d7d-678591ad407b/wrcr27521-math-0001.png\\\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\\\"27\\\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\\\"1\\\" jax=\\\"CHTML\\\" role=\\\"application\\\" sre-explorer- style=\\\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\\\" tabindex=\\\"0\\\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\\\"true\\\" location=\\\"graphic/wrcr27521-math-0001.png\\\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\\\"4,3\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\\\"addition\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"plus 0.38 plus or minus 0.14\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"infixop\\\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"0\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"5\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"positive\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,+\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"addition\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\" rspace=\\\"1\\\" style=\\\"margin-left: 0.056em;\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"float\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\\\"infixop,±\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"5\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"addition\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\" rspace=\\\"4\\\" space=\\\"4\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"5\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"float\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\\\"inline\\\" unselectable=\\\"on\\\"><math altimg=\\\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27521:wrcr27521-math-0001\\\" display=\\\"inline\\\" location=\\\"graphic/wrcr27521-math-0001.png\\\" xmlns=\\\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\\\"><semantics><mrow data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"4,3\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"addition\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"plus 0.38 plus or minus 0.14\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"infixop\\\"><mrow data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"0\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"5\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"positive\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\"><mo data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,+\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"addition\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\">+</mo><mn data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"float\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\">0.38</mn></mrow><mo data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-operator=\\\"infixop,±\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"5\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"addition\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\">±</mo><mn data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"5\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"float\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\">0.14</mn></mrow>${+}0.38\\\\pm 0.14$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>°C per decade, leading to more extreme events at high elevations in spring and summer. While non-extreme water temperatures are mainly driven by air temperature, water temperature extremes are also importantly influenced by soil moisture, baseflow, and meltwater. Our study highlights the complexity of water temperature dynamics in mountain rivers at the regional and continental scale, especially during water temperature extremes.\",\"PeriodicalId\":23799,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Water Resources Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Water Resources Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037518\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Water Resources Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037518","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Trends and Drivers of Water Temperature Extremes in Mountain Rivers
Water temperature extremes can pose serious threats to the aquatic ecosystems of mountain rivers. These rivers are influenced by snow and glaciermelt, which change with climate. As a result, the frequency and severity of water temperature extremes may change. While previous studies have documented changes in non-extreme water temperature, it is yet unclear how extreme water temperatures change in a warming climate and how their hydro-meteorological drivers differ from those of non-extremes. This study aims to assess temporal changes and spatial variability in water temperature extremes and enhance our understanding of the driving processes across European mountain rivers in the current climate, at both a regional and continental scale. First, we describe the characteristics of extreme events and explore their relationships with catchment characteristics. Second, we assess trends in water temperature extremes and compare them with trends in mean water temperature. Third, we use random forest models to identify the main driving processes of water temperature extremes. Last, we conduct a co-occurrence analysis to examine the relationship between water temperature extremes and hydro-climatic extremes. Our results show that mean water temperature has increased by °C per decade, leading to more extreme events at high elevations in spring and summer. While non-extreme water temperatures are mainly driven by air temperature, water temperature extremes are also importantly influenced by soil moisture, baseflow, and meltwater. Our study highlights the complexity of water temperature dynamics in mountain rivers at the regional and continental scale, especially during water temperature extremes.
期刊介绍:
Water Resources Research (WRR) is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on hydrology and water resources. It publishes original research in the natural and social sciences of water. It emphasizes the role of water in the Earth system, including physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes in water resources research and management, including social, policy, and public health implications. It encompasses observational, experimental, theoretical, analytical, numerical, and data-driven approaches that advance the science of water and its management. Submissions are evaluated for their novelty, accuracy, significance, and broader implications of the findings.