{"title":"年轻乳腺癌的预后提名图:基于 SEER 和 METABRIC 数据库的回顾性研究。","authors":"Yongxin Li, Xinlong Tao, Yinyin Ye, Yuyao Tang, Zhengbo Xu, Yaming Tian, Zhen Liu, Jiuda Zhao","doi":"10.1002/cai2.152","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background</h3>\n \n <p>Young breast cancer (YBC) is a subset of breast cancer that is often more aggressive, but less is known about its prognosis. In this study, we aimed to generate nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) of YBC patients.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>Data of women diagnosed with YBC between 2010 and 2020 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort (<i>n</i> = 15,227) and internal validation cohort (<i>n</i> = 6,526) at a 7:3 ratio. With the Cox regression models, significant prognostic factors were identified and used to construct 3-, 5-, and 10-year nomograms of OS and BCSS. Data from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) database were used as an external validation cohort (<i>n</i> = 90).</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>We constructed nomograms incorporating 10 prognostic factors for OS and BCSS. These nomograms demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for OS and BCSS in the training cohort, with C-indexes of 0.806 and 0.813, respectively. The calibration curves verified that the nomograms have good prediction accuracy. Decision curve analysis demonstrated their practical clinical value for predicting YBC patient survival rates. Additionally, we provided dynamic nomograms to improve the operability of the results. The risk stratification ability assessment also showed that the OS and BCSS rates of the low-risk group were significantly better than those of the high-risk group.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Here, we generated and validated more comprehensive and accurate OS and BCSS nomograms than models previously developed for YBC. These nomograms can help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and make clinical decisions.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":100212,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Innovation","volume":"3 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11503687/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases\",\"authors\":\"Yongxin Li, Xinlong Tao, Yinyin Ye, Yuyao Tang, Zhengbo Xu, Yaming Tian, Zhen Liu, Jiuda Zhao\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/cai2.152\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Background</h3>\\n \\n <p>Young breast cancer (YBC) is a subset of breast cancer that is often more aggressive, but less is known about its prognosis. In this study, we aimed to generate nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) of YBC patients.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>Data of women diagnosed with YBC between 2010 and 2020 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort (<i>n</i> = 15,227) and internal validation cohort (<i>n</i> = 6,526) at a 7:3 ratio. With the Cox regression models, significant prognostic factors were identified and used to construct 3-, 5-, and 10-year nomograms of OS and BCSS. Data from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) database were used as an external validation cohort (<i>n</i> = 90).</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>We constructed nomograms incorporating 10 prognostic factors for OS and BCSS. These nomograms demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for OS and BCSS in the training cohort, with C-indexes of 0.806 and 0.813, respectively. The calibration curves verified that the nomograms have good prediction accuracy. Decision curve analysis demonstrated their practical clinical value for predicting YBC patient survival rates. Additionally, we provided dynamic nomograms to improve the operability of the results. The risk stratification ability assessment also showed that the OS and BCSS rates of the low-risk group were significantly better than those of the high-risk group.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Here, we generated and validated more comprehensive and accurate OS and BCSS nomograms than models previously developed for YBC. These nomograms can help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and make clinical decisions.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":100212,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cancer Innovation\",\"volume\":\"3 6\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11503687/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cancer Innovation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cai2.152\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Innovation","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cai2.152","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases
Background
Young breast cancer (YBC) is a subset of breast cancer that is often more aggressive, but less is known about its prognosis. In this study, we aimed to generate nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) of YBC patients.
Methods
Data of women diagnosed with YBC between 2010 and 2020 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort (n = 15,227) and internal validation cohort (n = 6,526) at a 7:3 ratio. With the Cox regression models, significant prognostic factors were identified and used to construct 3-, 5-, and 10-year nomograms of OS and BCSS. Data from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) database were used as an external validation cohort (n = 90).
Results
We constructed nomograms incorporating 10 prognostic factors for OS and BCSS. These nomograms demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for OS and BCSS in the training cohort, with C-indexes of 0.806 and 0.813, respectively. The calibration curves verified that the nomograms have good prediction accuracy. Decision curve analysis demonstrated their practical clinical value for predicting YBC patient survival rates. Additionally, we provided dynamic nomograms to improve the operability of the results. The risk stratification ability assessment also showed that the OS and BCSS rates of the low-risk group were significantly better than those of the high-risk group.
Conclusions
Here, we generated and validated more comprehensive and accurate OS and BCSS nomograms than models previously developed for YBC. These nomograms can help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and make clinical decisions.