以几何方法研究传染病感染者移民的影响。

IF 1.9 4区数学 Q2 BIOLOGY

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109320

Sofía Guarello , Nicolás González , Isabel Flores , Pablo Aguirre

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们构建了一套新的流行病学阈值，以解决随着受感染个体的涌入而传播和遏制可传播疾病的一般问题（因此，经典的 R0 不再有意义）。我们提供了这些指数的分析特性，并用智利的数据说明了它们在 COVID-19 分区模型中的实用性，这些数据与记录的疾病行为对比显示出良好的预测潜力。这种几何方法以及相关的分析和数值结果开辟了新的领域，使我们能够量化传染病个体进入社区的严重程度，并确定在特定模型中能够改变或逆转传染病传播的关键参数。

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A geometric approach to the impact of immigration of people infected with communicable diseases

We construct a set of new epidemiological thresholds to address the general problem of spreading and containment of a transmissible disease with influx of infected individuals (i.e., when the classic

R_{0}

is no longer meaningful). We provide analytical properties of these indices and illustrate their usefulness in a compartmental model of COVID-19 with data taken from Chile showing a good predictive potential when contrasted with the recorded disease behavior. This geometric approach and the associated analytical and numerical results break new ground in that they allow us to quantify the severity of an immigration of infectious individuals into a community, and identification of the key parameters that are capable of changing or reversing the spread of an infectious disease in specific models.

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来源期刊

Mathematical Biosciences 生物-生物学

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

2.30%

发文量

审稿时长

18 days

期刊介绍： Mathematical Biosciences publishes work providing new concepts or new understanding of biological systems using mathematical models, or methodological articles likely to find application to multiple biological systems. Papers are expected to present a major research finding of broad significance for the biological sciences, or mathematical biology. Mathematical Biosciences welcomes original research articles, letters, reviews and perspectives.