以几何方法研究传染病感染者移民的影响。

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109320

Sofía Guarello , Nicolás González , Isabel Flores , Pablo Aguirre

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们构建了一套新的流行病学阈值，以解决随着受感染个体的涌入而传播和遏制可传播疾病的一般问题（因此，经典的 R0 不再有意义）。我们提供了这些指数的分析特性，并用智利的数据说明了它们在 COVID-19 分区模型中的实用性，这些数据与记录的疾病行为对比显示出良好的预测潜力。这种几何方法以及相关的分析和数值结果开辟了新的领域，使我们能够量化传染病个体进入社区的严重程度，并确定在特定模型中能够改变或逆转传染病传播的关键参数。

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A geometric approach to the impact of immigration of people infected with communicable diseases

We construct a set of new epidemiological thresholds to address the general problem of spreading and containment of a transmissible disease with influx of infected individuals (i.e., when the classic

R_{0}

is no longer meaningful). We provide analytical properties of these indices and illustrate their usefulness in a compartmental model of COVID-19 with data taken from Chile showing a good predictive potential when contrasted with the recorded disease behavior. This geometric approach and the associated analytical and numerical results break new ground in that they allow us to quantify the severity of an immigration of infectious individuals into a community, and identification of the key parameters that are capable of changing or reversing the spread of an infectious disease in specific models.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.