[基于 LEAP 模型的 "零碳 "发电厂建设路径]。

Q2 Environmental Science
Tian Wang, Xiao-Xiu Lun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

电力行业是碳排放第一大行业,必须加强 "双碳 "目标背景下 "零碳 "电厂建设路径的研究。以某国有发电企业为例,根据该电厂近年来的碳排放情况,结合其能源结构和地理气候条件,构建了 LEAP 模型,并设置了基准情景、能源结构调整情景、技术进步情景和综合情景。分析了各情景下的能源消费需求,预测了各情景下的未来碳排放量。结果表明,2060 年,技术进步情景和能源结构调整情景下发电行业的碳排放总量分别比基准情景减少 54.55% 和 75.97%。97% ,说明清洁能源替代的碳减排潜力较大,火电机组的灵活性改造和超超临界机组的升级替代可以减少煤炭消耗,降低碳排放,而 CCUS 技术的发展意义重大,在保留一定火力发电规模的前提下,建设 CCUS 项目是实现电厂碳中和的必要条件。在综合情景下,电厂 "零碳 "排放可在 2056 年左右实现。研究结果为建设 "零碳 "电厂提供了思路。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
[Construction Path of "Zero Carbon" Power Plant Based on the LEAP Model].

As the power industry is the primary carbon emission industry, the research on the construction path of "zero-carbon" power plants against the background of the "dual-carbon" goal must be strengthened. Considering a state-owned power generation enterprise as an example, based on the carbon emissions of the power plant in recent years, the LEAP model was constructed by combining its energy structure and geographical and climatic conditions and the baseline, energy structure adjustment, technological progress, and comprehensive scenarios were set up. The energy consumption demand under each scenario was analyzed and the future carbon emissions under each scenario were predicted. The results showed that in 2060, the total carbon emissions from the power generation sector under the technological progress and energy structure adjustment scenarios decrease by 54.55% and 75.97% compared with those in the baseline scenario, respectively, which demonstrated the large potential for carbon emission reduction from clean energy substitution and that the flexibility transformation of thermal power units and the upgrading and replacement of ultra-supercritical generating units could reduce coal consumption and decrease carbon emissions, whereas the development of CCUS technology was significant, and the construction of CCUS projects was a necessary condition for realizing carbon neutrality of power plants while retaining a certain scale of thermal power generation. Under a comprehensive scenario, "zero carbon" emissions from power plants could be realized around 2056. The results of the study provide ideas for the construction of "zero carbon" power plants.

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来源期刊
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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