[淮河流域中上游碳储量时空变化特征及未来多情景模拟预测]。

Q2 Environmental Science
Xi-Meng Yang, Bao-Wei Qian, Guang-Xing Ji, Wei-Qiang Chen, Jun-Chang Huang, Yu-Long Guo, Yi-Nan Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

淮河流域位于中国南北气候过渡带。该地区碳储量的变化对预测淮河流域未来的生态保护、减缓气候变化、保持可持续发展具有重要意义。淮河流域中上游(蚌埠站以上)为研究区域。为研究区域。根据 1980-2020 年的土地利用数据,利用 PLUS 模型模拟预测了 2030-2100 年 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5 和土地利用现状延续情景下研究区的土地利用类型。利用 InVEST 模型中的碳模块模拟预测了不同情景下 1980~2020 年的碳储量和 2030~2100 年的碳储量,对比分析了淮河流域中上游碳储量的时空变化。结果表明:①1980-2020 年,流域耕地和草地面积均有所减少,林地、水域、建设用地和未利用地面积均有所增加,其中耕地面积持续减少,40a 内共减少 4699 km2。流域碳储量呈下降趋势,1980-2020 年共减少 1.05×107 t。在四种情景中,各土地类型的面积变化程度不同,其中 SSP1-2.6 情景的面积在四种情景中相对较小。与 2020 年的碳储量相比,SSP1-2.6 方案的碳储量增加了 8.7×104 t,SSP2-4.5 方案的碳储量减少了 1.42×107 t,SSP5-8.5 方案的碳储量减少了 1.该研究可为未来淮河流域中上游(蚌埠站以上)土地利用结构管理和生态保护提供科学依据。提供科学依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
[Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Changes in Carbon Stocks in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Huaihe River Basin and Future Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction].

The Huaihe River Basin is located in the north-south climate transition zone of China. The change of carbon storage in this area is of great significance for predicting the future ecological protection, mitigating climate change, and maintaining sustainable development of the Huaihe River Basin. The middle and upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin (above Bengbu station) were taken as the research area. Based on the land use data from 1980 to 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate and predict the land use types in the study area from 2030 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, and the continuation of land use status. The carbon module in the InVEST model was used to simulate and predict the carbon storage from 1980 to 2020 and the carbon storage from 2030 to 2100 under various scenarios, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin were compared and analyzed. The results showed that: ① From 1980 to 2020, the basin showed a decrease in both cultivated land and grassland,and the area of forest,water, construction, and unused land all increased, among which the area of cultivated land continued to decrease, with a total decrease of 4 699 km2 in 40 a. Construction land continued to increase, with a total increase of 4 592 km2 in 40 a. ② The carbon storage in the basin showed a downward trend, with a total reduction of 1.05×107 t from 1980 to 2020. ③ In the four scenarios, the area of each land type had different degrees of change, and that of the SSP1-2.6 scenario was relatively small out of the four scenarios. ④ Compared with the carbon storage in 2020, the carbon storage in the SSP1-2.6 scenario increased by 8.7×104 t, the carbon storage in the SSP2-4.5 scenario decreased by 1.42×107 t, the carbon storage in the SSP5-8.5 scenario decreased by 1.34×107 t, and the carbon storage in the current continuation scenario decreased by 1.22×107 t. The study can provide a scientific basis for land use structure management and ecological protection in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin (above Bengbu station) in the future.

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来源期刊
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
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