The incremental predictive value of arterial stiffness over SCORE2 in the setting of primary cardiovascular prevention: a 6-year follow-up study.

Aim: Arterial stiffness hallmarks age-related cardiovascular diseases, precedes their onset and strongly links to accelerated disease progression. However, whether carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), a proxy of arterial stiffness, predicts cardiovascular risk over and above SCORE2, a newly introduced risk score remains to be investigated.

Methods: We measured PWV among 747 individuals without established atheromatosis. Study participants were followed up over a 6-year period for the incidence of cardiovascular events [[MACE)-cardiovascular mortality, stroke and myocardial infarction].

Results: PWV emerged as an independent and additive predictor of first cardiovascular events when added in a model encompassing SCORE2 (hazard ratio = 1.10; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.07-1.14; P < 0.001, Brier score changed from 0.073 (0.060-0.086) to 0.067 (0.055-0.081); P < 0.001, c-statistic increased from 0.71 to 0.75; P = 0.017; likelihood ratio: 20.22; P < 0.001; the overall net reclassification improvement (NRI): 0.577; P < 0.001, AICc changed from 697.81 to 679.60; BIC changed from 702.42 to 688.82]. An increase in PWV predicted a greater risk of future MACEs additively to conventional risk factors (P < 0.05). We performed Kaplan-Meier survival analysis for the tertiles of PWV [first tertile < 8.04 m/s; the second tertile: (8.04-10 m/s); the third tertile: (10-17.10 m/s); (P < 0.05 for all comparisons between the tertiles). PWV tertiles also predicted MACE when added to SCORE2 [for the second tertile: hazard ratio: 5.87 (95% CI: 1.73-19.92); P = 0.004 and for the third tertile: hazard ratio: 9.69 (95% CI: 2.97-31.55); P < 0.001 with the respective change of c-statistic from 0.739 to 0.772; P = 0.012 and continuous NRI = 0.598].

Conclusion: PWV confers additive prognostic value to the newly introduced SCORE2 for adverse outcome in primary prevention.